Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 3/28/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 3/28/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi


New all time high and holding on S&P at 1568
New high Dow at 14,578
NASDAQ at the top as well at 3257
At the end of 1Q Dow up 11%, S&P up 10% and NASDAQ up over 10%
The question is now will the markets react in a corrective down turn?
ADP growth was paltry at .4% on yearly bases as that barely keeps the lights on, yet alone creates jobs.
A worry in Europe is that the IMF allowing countries to loot their depositors may become the springboard for other troubled economies
A flow on money to insured US bank deposits is another consideration
The long Easter weekend has begun and it may be like going for a walk in a mine field from an investment prospective.

June cattle rallied up past their $124 resistance as cash firmed $2 in Texas and Kansas
Boxed beef fizzled this week losing over $3
June hogs finished at mid range at $91.20 on short covering ahead of the Pig crop report
Report: all hogs and pigs 101 % just a little above the estimate, breeding just slightly above par and marketing’s 102%

Grain and soybeans
The speculatively dominated markets of corn, wheat and soybeans got bombed by the stocks report
Corn 5.4 b bushels versus 5 b expected, soybeans 999 m versus 947 and wheat tagged along to the downside, on stocks of 3% greater
Plantings were 97.3 m in corn as expected and 77.1 m beans versus 78 with wheat at 56.4 m against 56 m
What ever the actual acres the ultimate market tune will be created by the unpredictable weather
As I have pointed out many times these Quarterly stocks report can be shockers as past errors are often adjusted
The computer speculative nature of all markets makes excess volatility a constant threat
If spring is dry with two–thirds of the Corn Belt short on starter fluid limit up days may be ahead.
Whatever, happens it will be too hot for the average person to fool with, because he and his money will soon be parted.

11:36 update

S&P 1567 and close is always the key
Grains and soybean are auguring into report down 9 on May corn and 7 on Dec, with May bean off 1 cent, Nov down 4, with wheat 8 and 7 lower May and Dec.
June cattle test $124 resistance
June hogs at ease

11:06 update

An interesting, and often asked question is, will the effervesence of the markets go flat now that the S&P has hit a new all time high at 1565.38, and remember this is a long weekend!
Dollar skims some cream down 29 at 82.95

10:51 update

Dow holds up 26 and S&P is steady at 1 point under all time high of 1565.15
June cattle $123.67 in a range from $120-124
Are cattle near their low?
Pig crop 100.7% expected
Pigs per litter 101.1%
Steady as she goes in wheat, corn and soybeans
Wheat exports led by Brazil and Japan
Gulf corn steady
Old crop soybean business winding down to 66,000 tons

Opening Comment

Dow opens up 25 and S&P is 1 point under high at 1565.15
Cypriot banks reopen quietly under tight security with rationing of deposits to 300 euro’
GDP annual growth rate .4% versus .5% expected
Jobless claims up 16,000 to 357,000
DAX up .3% on positive data
WTI crude up $ .04
Gold down $10 to $1598
Dollar 16 lower at 83.07 with 84.10 the one year high

$125 trade for a few Texas cattle and offers remain at $128
Boxed beef off $ .47 choice and $ .66 select that’s better than $3 lower for the week
Kill off 12,000 cattle and 6000 hogs
Pork cutout on 35 loads off $.70 carcass, up $2.60 loin’s and down $4.99 hams
Pig crop report forecast at just over 100%
Beef exports 17.300 tons or 5% above the four week average

Grain and soybeans
Level bubbles over night
11 AM report
Corn cares 97 m, beans 78 m, wheat 56 m and cotton 10.8 m
Stocks 5 b bushels of corn and 935 m beans
Weather ideal out 10 days
Argentine corn 18 % Harvested and soybeans 6%
Argentine corn 60 cents under US and India 25 cents below Argentine
Weekly export sales:
Wheat 580,000 tons
Corn 295,000 and 19,000 new crop
Soybeans 66,000 and 607,000 with China taking 601,000