Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 4/02/2013 Market Closing with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 4/02/2013 Market Closing with Gary Wilhelmi


Dow closed up 89 and S&P 8 higher both at new highs
DAX up 2% on strong March retail sales
Factory orders up 4%
Auto sales up 5% at Chrysler
NASDAQ pulls back from high up 16
WTI off $ .14
Gold at a four week low off $25 at $1576
Dollar up 21 at 82.93
Earnings will soon be out after 1Q were mostly positive

June cattle off $1.07
Weak boxed beef movement
Cash offers at $132 but futures floundered
Cash hogs steady to $1 higher
Pork trade slow
June hogs down $.27
Tomorrows features will be more normal offerings mix

Grain and soybeans
Light volume short covering early and then a heavier liquidating pattern with a scramble at the end
S/D on the 10th with 850-900 m corn carryover expected
Ethanol demand increases firming the interior corn basis
Egypt says they are expanding domestic storage reducing imports by 8-10% for 2013
More normal temperatures are coming but little rain and two-thirds of the Central Corn Belt needs above average moisture

10:31 update

Dow now up 89 at new high and so is S&P
Treasuries weaken and 10 year at 1.84 % some see the Fed unwinding driving rates to 3%
Boxed trade light at 143 loads
Cash hogs may be higher, but margins fall deeper onto the red
Pork trade just 11 loads
Wheat buyer S Korea 55,000 optional origin with Taiwan and Jordan pending
Chinese supplies continue to tighten due to Brazilian port delays
Gulf bean up 11 cents with demand lurking so watch Thursday export sales
S Korea buys 130,000 tons of corn likely from S Africa
Dollar slightly higher on euro zone woes with unemployment at 12%

9:58 update

Shorts piling on nearby as open interest is up to about 200,000 contracts in May corn up 100,000 in one day
May beans 160,000 from 75,000
May wheat 100,000 from 45,000
The boat is listing to the short side after coming into the report long
More volatility ahead

Opening Comment

Quarterly earnings are on the horizon—1Q was constructive
Factory orders seen at op 2.9%
Chrysler auto sales up 5% in March
Euro zone unemployment 12 % with Greece and Spain at 26 %
PMI’s: Spain, Italy and France near 44 with 50 being the breakpoint
Cypriot depositors may lose 60% of their funds
Fed financed bubble will be tricky to unwind and there is no timetable as yet
WTI crude $96.98 off $ .04
DAX and FTSE up 1%
Gold quiet at $1592
Dollar index 82.78 up 6
US stocks called higher

April cattle are at a $5 premium to June
Cash offer $312
Cash low has been $124
Boxed choice up $1.50
Show lists 10,000 larger
Feeder cattle up $7 in two days of plunging corn prices of $ .90 + on nearby
Holiday left over effect on slaughter withy cattle ay 108,000 and hogs at 420,000
9 loads of pork with carcass up $.75, loins $2.36 and hams $ .35 better

Grain and soybeans
Modest short covering in night trade with corn up 8, beans 11 better and wheat up 9
Corn drop a 24 year severity
Corn carryover could be 1 b bushels in the 4/10 S/D report, if all of 400,000 usage cut is passed through
Fund longs cut 35,000 in corn 6,000 beans and 4000 in wheat
Funds added 47,000 in May corn coming into report
Volume Monday was 252,000 contracts in May corn
Corn limit back to 40 cents today
Winter wheat crop condition 1% better at 33 g-x
More normal 50 degree temps are coming
Export inspections are less than 50% of last year in corn, with beans at 1.2 m versus 1 MT and wheat 792,000 down from 828 m