Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 4/11/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 4/11/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi


Dow up 62, S&P 5 higher and NADAQ 3 better
Upside momentum maintained
WTI crude oil down $1.20 on Energy report
Gold able to only rally $1 after sharp declines
Dollar off 28 as euro firms to 1.31
There was nothing decisive in world events by the close, but check out over nights as trouble is not afraid of the dark

Cattle traded at $127-127.50 off $$1
Select boxes off over $2 in two days but movement better
June futures bounced off the ropes at $120 support again and closed $, 55 higher
Sluggish pork demand condemned futures to slightly lower close

Grain and soybeans
Old crop May soybeans gained on Nov despite an increase in the S American crop estimate and good top dressing moisture
Corn and wheat did little
It’s too early for delayed planting switch talk from corn to beans, and there is usually not that much of that anyway
We are having a wet week but that does make a crop
CFTC weekly report will give is a fresh reading on fund activity
Volume remains quite light and the markets are near mid ground on their current ranges
Weekly exports were light across the board
China bought 345,000 of SRW milling wheat and may buy another 700-800,000 tons
The market is well aware of that possibility
Wheat competition is tough and global supplies are larger than expected (4 MT)

11:33 update

May corn $6.30-6.95 gap
May beans $13.50-14.50
May wheat $6.60-7.30
All at middle ground
June cattle $120-124 on the bottom
June hogs $88-92 in the middle
It’s a crackpot’s wonderland in the Dow with wild guesses from 12,000 to 18,000, gold $1200 to $2000 and WTI crude $75- 110

10:28 update

Exceedingly light volume in nearby corn up 12 and beans 10 better with May wheat up just 4
Stocks quietly rise to 27 point advance on the Dow
Hog slaughter weights 277.2 versus 276.2 last week and 276.1 last year
Pork cut out was off $ .47

10:03 update

Stocks narrowly mixed
Ag volumes extremely low at 12,000 in May corn near 9:00 AM, 14,000 beans, 7000 wheat, 1200 cattle and 500 hogs
China bought 345,000 tons of SRW for 13/14
Gulf beans steady to lower and corn unchanged to higher
Any wheat cold weather damage is a few weeks off in calibrating
Planting’s success now in the center ring of market attention

Market Opening Comment

Jobless claims fall 42,000 to 346,000 versus last week and that motivates the equities to move still higher after setting new record yesterday
US equities are the strongest dog in the financial dog fight but still a dog, but where else are over seas go with their money
Claims are a Fed favorite indicator
Fed had a split decision on continued bond buying program in their latest meeting minutes
North Korean missile test thought to be imminent
Home prices are rising but incomes are not keeping pace
No earnings today with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo Friday
S&P 1Q earning up 1.6 % versus 6.1 in 4Q 2012
Fed flub on errant release of minutes report is disturbing
WTI crude $94.51 off $ .20
Gold Steadies off $3 after a $28 plunge yesterday at $1556
DAX up .4%
FTSE .1%
Dollar index drops 42 to 82.11
The strength in the dollar is another indication of our preferred investment position
Cash cattle $127-127.50 off $1 despite smaller show lists
New low June cattle with support at $120
Select boxed beef down $ .68
Meat demand mushy
Slaughters smaller
Harsh weather curtails hog movement and firm’s cash
Replacement prices fall $3
Pork cut out little change
***Grain and soybeans
Prime S/D impact on spreads reflecting tight current supplies and favorable new crop prospects
Few cents higher over night
Corn selling light due to absence of product and farmers are awaiting evidence of early planting success
Chinese soybean import estimate cut but by 2 MT
HRW troubled crop condition off set by 4 MT increase expected in global supplies
Heavy rains whirling through the central and southern Corn Belt
2” plus on some Illinois locals
Major top dressing is a good start but many days yet to come
CFTC report Friday is a weekly indicator of fund activity and this time we will be looking at their liquidation pattern, which has been dominating
Weekly export sales: poor in wheat at 263,000 tons, corn remains slow at 185,000 and soybeans just 319,000