Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 4/17/2013 Market Update with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 4/17/2013 Market Update with Gary Wilhelmi


Collective earnings reports are always the best driver of equity markets, and today we had a couple of real turkey’s causing the Bank of America to fall 5% and Apple to drop 6%
As a result the Dow fell 138 points, S&P 23 and NASDAQ 60
S&P support is now at 1530 and then 1474 with today’s close at 1552
WTI crude lost b$2
Gold turned $15 lower
DAX index off 2.3%
Dollar index up 90 at 82.66
Beware the yen as it is showing signs of a collapse similar to what we saw in 1987, and that is reinforced by a weakening Chinese growth rate, at 7.7% versus 12.6 % a year ago. This could touch off an Asian currency crisis
Also watch the important industrial metal copper, in particular in relation to China

June cattle and June hogs bounced off support at $120 and $88 in a short covering exercise
Cash cattle may firm back to steady from a $2 drop in Monday’s panic period
Boxed beef is a little higher is a mixed alignment
Beef and pork movement is improved
The economic willies are still suppressing meat demand
Hog slaughter weights were off 1# week to week

Grain and soybeans
Wet weather is now the prime fundamental factor in the markets
Cold at 29 degrees in Goodland Kansas, more snow in the Dakota’s spring wheat area and maybe 2-4” of rain in the central Corn Belt
Planting delays and switches from corn to soybeans are premature
Flooding, however, is a threatening menace, especially in the Red river ditch in North Dakota; I have always thought it was too shallow to be a valley
Ethanol production is down 6% year to year
Dryness is a growing factor in E Australia
China may show up in soybean export sales tomorrow
The outside markets are angered up so watch them

10:01 update

Dow off 86
Boxed beef movement active on 192 loads as was pork at 422 loads
Spring wheat plantings delays face another winter storm
Some HRW abandonment due to freeze
Reduced Chinese feed demand due to Bird flu
Gulf beans off 3 and corn 4 lower because of weak demand
Volume continues to be quite light in Ag markets

9:44 update

Dow opens off 113
S&P down 11
NASDAQ drops 31
WTI crude off $ .72 to $87.87 on supply report anticipation
Gold off $4 at $1384
Dollar holds at 42 higher at 82.17
Regional economic Beige Book today

Morning Comment

Dow off 90 pre open
DAX down 1.6% and FTSE .6% lower on poor earnings reports
Bank of America misses earning target
Yahoo and Intel also fall short
WTO crude down to $88 off $ .72
Gold $4 lower at $1583
Dollar bounces back up 42 at 82.17
10 year note 1.71%
Global economic and cultural unease

$125 trade in a few Texas cattle
Show lists up from last week but down from a year ago
Choice beef up $ .56 and select $ .02 better
Cattle kill up 4000 and hogs 6000
Pork cutout $.31 higher
Features mostly beef with top sirloin at $3.98, round roast $3.99 as is stew meat, center cut pork chops $ 2.48 an lamb roast $1.99

Grain and soybeans
Markets mixed at dry dock
Cash tight and ethanol plants are scrambling
2-4” of rain in central Corn Belt with a few spots up to 6” bringing flood warnings
Plantings of corn at 2% versus 5 year average of 7%, but there is nothing bullish about starter fluid
China said to be shopping for soybeans so watch export sales tomorrow
S Brazilian soybeans are of good quality
Russia said to selling wheat out of Black sea to support domestic prices
French and German wheat benefits from warm and moist conditions
Global wheat supplies are comfortable
Outside markets are a nervous side show