Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 5/10/2013 Weekly Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 5/10/2013 Weekly Comment with Gary Wilhelmi


Stocks hit all time highs in US, Germany and Japan. The US dollar rises above 100 yen for the first time since the 2009 depth of our crisis. Some see global deflation shooting the dollar to 105 yen. The Japanese have been trying to jump start their economy for over a decade. Japan suffers from an aging population, young leaving the country and a lack of fresh immigrant economic stimulation.
Fed leadership is mixed on their bond buying stimulant program. The Fed’s printing of funny money, as well as that of other challenged nations. A G7 meeting is in progress in London, but such confabs have accomplished nothing thus far.
WTI crude is at mid range. Gold, is always confused by, rush type, speculators, and is now reacting to the dollar.
Our stubborn bull market carries a 5-10% downside correctional risk, but nothing is scaring it, at this point.
We have gone from bone dry to flood fears in some areas. There are still dryness concerns in the west. The central and eastern Corn Belt is adequately moist for plantings, and it is too early to worry about delays. There is some Asian buying in defense of our late sowing. As we are coming off a short production year, such defensive buying is to be expected.
Friday’s supply-demand report is not forecast to contain big surprises, and that is normal here at mid stream. We will not have a survey estimate of our corn and soybean crops until August and wheat’s troubles are well discounted. Some features in the report may be a small four bushel cut in corn yield, but still projecting to a two billion bushels carry over. Old crop corn stocks may be boosted due to the lowest exports since the 1970’s and reduced ethanol production of 6%.
Current planting weather looks promising, and our immense ability to plant, plus giant yield advancements, forestall serious concern. Since we have no idea what the rest of the growing season has in store, it would be silly to assume, as always.
The Black seas wheat production is approaching the world market, and prospects look fairly good. Global wheat supplies are ample, as the worldwide production landscape is greatly expanded.
South America is a surging corn competitor, as well as their majority position in soybeans. I remember, the mid 1970’s when Brazil first went over 10 million tons of soybean production and now they at 83 MT and Argentina 50 MT plus.
Choice beef at a record $ 205 cwt. is too expensive for the average shopper, and features remain directed to cheaper cuts. Cash cattle are at a $6 premium to June futures. The June contract dropped to support at $120 at weeks end. June hogs were at mid range< between $89 and $93. Exports of both meats were poor. Pork offerings highlighted pork steak at $1.48, and retailers could not a find a picture of them that made them attractive. Well, at least we are not living on jerky and drinking out of a ditch.
China is stock piling pork, in effort to stabilize prices and that may mean more imports, and McDonalds is phasing out Angus burgers due to record high choice beef.
Profit taking dominated pre report trade. New crop contracts Dec corn and Nov beans both off 13 led post report further decline. Corn yield of 158 bushels with time to add on, and 44.5 bpa in beans is more than enough. Deep support is at $4.20 on Dec corn and $11.50 Nov beans.