Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/10/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/10/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi


Stocks wobble into the week, off 10 on the Dow up 5 NASDAQ and down 1 on S&P
10 year notes reach 2.21 % up from 1.71 recently, or about a 30% gain
WTI crude $.30 lower at $95.73
Gold level at $1385
Dollar gives back rally to 82.09 to close steady at 81.66
Fed taper ideas remain muddled
Scandalous diversions occupy Washington

August cattle test $118 support closing at $118.55
Boxed beef came back $ 1.52, but that had no impact
July hogs reached limit up at $99.20, a break out, but pulled back to end at $97.90
Rumors of Chinese pork interest and firm cutout values are key factors
Cattle cash breakeven is $135-140 well above the current $122
Discount of futures to cash in cattle indicates that seasonal adjustments are in the market

Grain and soybeans
Dec corn survives a $5.40 1/4 test of support as does July wheat $6.80 ½
Dec corn close $5.45 and July wheat $ 6.90
Nov beans $13.19 in a range from $12.80 to 13.30
Soybean planting weather looks like a go
S/D report Wednesday will be a statistical approximation
No survey corn and soybean estimates until August
Crop conditions are not currently at risk, but it’s a long way to go.
Weekly export inspections were light in corn and beans, but large in wheat at 24 m versus 18 m required to hit the target
Large grain crops coming in the Black sea area, especially the Ukraine
US corn is at a competitive disadvantage to those regions
Chinese GDP may only grow by 7.5% versus 11% a few years back

11:31 update

July hogs at $98.47 are in midst of resistance, with monthly point up at $ 100-101
Remember in all markets the close is the only price that counts in technical scoring

10:11 update

S&P upgrades US outlook to stable from negative
Stocks meander off 20 on the Dow
Dollar up 38 to 82.04 (bracket 78-84)
Yen and Aussie dollar slip
Crude at $ .64 lower
Gold last $1379

09:01 update

Flat stocks
August cattle off $ .80 at $119.25 near $118 support
Tardy cash cattle trade
Cattle discount to cash indicates seasonal weakness is priced in
Cash hogs steady to higher on firm pork
It too late for corn
Good bean planting weather ahead
Gulf corn up 3 cents, steady in soybeans and 2 lower in SRW
Chinese CPI up 2.1% means softer demand
Chinese Soybean imports 5 MT in May up 5%
Ukrainian grain 53-54 MT up from 46 MT last year
Wheat tumbles a bit following corn and beans



Pre open Dow up 33 after at 207 gain Friday and is at mid range
Chinese PPI minus 2.9% from 2.6% last year S&P 500 retreated from its 50 day moving average
St. Louis Fed president to speak today
Lots of Fed speakers, in regards to taper talk of bond buying
June meeting will be watched closely, but may not change anything
WTI off $ .58
Chinese GDP may fall to 7.5% growth from 11% in recent years
Gold steady
Dollar up 15 at 81.52
DAX .7% higher and FTSE off .2%

Few cattle trade at $122 off $2 in Texas
Boxed beef lost $6 last week ending at $202 on choice
Breakeven at $135 to 140 on cash at $122
Pork cutout up $1.57
Slaughters 644,000 and 2,018,000

Grain and soybeans
Weekend not as wet as expected
Corn condition seen improved in the second week
Temperatures warming
Supply/Demand Wednesday will be just formula based as there will be survey crop estimates until August
July corn gained 16 cents on Dec last week
Tyson said to be seeking Brazilian corn due to old crop tightness
Dec corn lost 8 cents over night, Nov beans 16 and July whe