Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/11/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/11/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi


Dow fades to 116 point loss, S&P 15 and NASDAQ 36
WTI crude oil $ .54 lower and fairly quiet
Gold drifts down $8
Dollar was high at 81.75 but closed at 81.04 off 58 (range has been 78-82)
Finicky global specs beat a retreat early and US equities slumped into their close
Loose lips and lack of cohesive and direction in Fed policy unhinges specs
Yen falls over 2 lower on Bank of Japan actions
Hints of Fed tapering strike at emerging countries currencies
Any sign of reduced stimuli derail fragile economies

Slow developing cash cattle trade which was never completed last week
I heard of $120 bids in the south but that’s $2 lower
Boxed beef was mixed early
August cattle, however, rallied back into mid range, perhaps drawn by the strong hogs
July hogs closed at $99.17, and into the $100-101 range
Hogs eased back from their $99.90 highs but were still staunch
Hog virus and Chinese purchase rumors were the co sponsors of the continuing rally

Grain and soybeans
Nov soybeans ended at $13.29 with resistance from $13.30-60
Soybean planting at 71% with good weather times ahead
Corn 95%
Spring wheat 80% plus
All crops benefit from ample soil moisture
We were at a similar crop condition last year but then came the drought
Corn entering prime development period, or pollination, that will be compressed due to a short planting window
Soybeans will not be in the yield creation mode for over a month
Decline on the dollar has not meant much for exports thus far
Black sea competition has the upper hand with good crops coming
Argentine ports may be struck again this week
Japan turns to alternative suppliers for feed wheat, due to Oregon GMO concerns
Corn and wheat closed at mid stream, while Nov beans tested resistance

1:36 update

Stocks slipping off 55 on the Dow
July hogs hold above $99
August cattle in mid ground at $119.50
S Korea buys 134,000 tons of feed wheat but PNW excluded
Bunched planting makes for a shorter pollination period in corn
Japan buys 55,000 tons of wheat, out of the Black sea
Tunisia buys 75,000 of Black sea wheat
Global soybean production could be up 18%
Argentine ports again may go on strike

12:36 update

Stocks not much changed at this hour
July hogs hold near $99.70 high
August cattle rally back to mid range at $119. 87 up $1.45 with early boxed beef just mixed
Nov beans at $13.24 are near resistance at $13.30
Dec corn and July wheat rally back into mid range
Dec corn $5.53 and July wheat $6.99

11:54 update

Computer speculative forays bring Dow back to an 8 point loss, NASDAQ 12 and S&P single digits
WTI crude the same format now off $.83
Gold as well now down $10
Grain and soybeans remain on glide paths
July hogs have been high at $99.90 so watch the close with $100-101 targets
Cattle are as indecisive as cash trade

11:17 update

Stocks firm off early declines to be 72 lower on the Dow, 20 NASDAQ and 10 on S&P
July hogs press ahead up $1.77 at $99.62, a new high for this move
August cattle $118 up $ .37 and drifting
Dec corn up 4 cents at $5.50, but remain in range, Nov beans $13.20 up a penny and July wheat $6.95 up 5
Dec corn grazed support at $3.40 ¼, and July wheat $6.80 ½ yesterday
All market action not much news since the opening

10:34 update

July soybean meal at the high of $454 on a another in a series of tests

Stocks lower on Central bank policy uncertainties
Dow was off over 100 points in the pre open period, DAX down 1.8%, FTSE 1.7% and Nikkei 1.5%
Bank of Japan maintain stimulus efforts but 10 year results are not encouraging
Japan faces aging population, lack of immigration and inability to keep their young at home
WTI crude down to $94.51 off $1.26
Gold at two week low $1377 down $13
Dollar index just fiddling at mid range at 81.48 off 16

August cattle test support at $118, while July hogs hit $99.20 with a $100-101 long term chart high above
Hog disease and rumors of Chinese pork interest spur hogs, and pork
Cutout up $1.96 with loins up $3.93, hams $ .40 and bellies $1.70
Hog kill light at 391,000 versus 402,000 last week equaling tight supply
Cattle kill on par at 124,000
Boxed beef up $1.59 on choice and $ .07 select

Grain and soybeans
Steady grains to light short covering in soybeans
Soybean plantings 71% done and moving quickly
Corn 95% with some diversion of acres into soybeans at this late date
Corn crop condition up 2%
S/D tomorrow with little change expected as there will be no survey estimate until August
Key development periods ahead
Export inspection were light in corn and soybeans
Wheat export loadings were positive, but our competitive position is diverse as opposed to the Black sea supplies, which will be ample
US corn is also priced too high versus S America and the Ukraine
Financials have the jitters as global banking policy is unsettled