Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/26/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/26/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi



Dow closes up 150 points
GDP 1.8% was sluggish and that generated computer spec buying on the supposition that the Fed tapering of their bond buying program would be forestalled
The St. Louis Fed financial stress ballooned like it did in 2008, 2010 and 2011
Gold dropped $52 to $1223 as a signal of deflation
We have long dealt with inflation but are now in uncharted waters, thus the confused Fed and Fiscal polices
WTI crude was up $ .09
The dollar index rose to 82.96 up 38 edging toward its 84.10 high
Beware the snake oil salesmen are out in force in the stock market

August cattle cleared the $122 resistance mark
Choice beef fell another $1.24
Beef in cheap versus the all time high pork
Hog virus drives prices higher and Mexico out of the pork import market
After reaching $98.52 August hogs fell back to $ 97.70 at steady money
Routine 4th meat bookings are under way

Grain and soybeans
Waffling into the Friday reports is a fair description of today’s markets
Acreage is not the prime number it’s yield and that is yet to be determined
Right now corn and soybean prospects look moistly good
Corn yield 27% above last year’s drought episode and 44 bpa plus in beans
Stocks report features likely to be ethanol usage in corn and soybean crush
The outside markets are so fickle that they have little consistent impact on Agriculture
Black sea wheat is plentiful and prices are attractive
Watch quality in wet wheat areas SRW and spring wheat up north and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces

12:08 update

Lethargic GDP growth at 1.8% eases fears of quick Fed tapering and stocks firm
This does not make monetary policy any less uncertain, but computer specs react to the head lines, which is amateurish.
The huge volume of computer based trade is often over powering

Opening Comment

GDP final up a tepid 1.8%
Dow pulls back from pre open 60 plus area
DAX up 1.6% and FTSE +. 9% both easing after GDP
Gold was off $ 41 but firmed slightly to minus $35
St Louis Fed financial stress index spikes higher similar to what it did in 2008, Greek crisis in 2010 and US credit down grade in 2011
WTI crude $97.76 up $ .18
Dollar in range at 82.76
Euro down on Draghi’s hollow pledge to do better
China is off front page for now

$117 bids passed after light $120 trade last week
Choice beef down $1.68
4Th features: $6.98 T-bone and $1.78 legs plus hot dogs and hamburger
August holds hold near high on virus concerns
Mexico restricts pork imports
239 load pork trade with carcass up $ .79, loins $1.12, hams $1.86 and bellies $ .98
Kill 123,000 cattle and 404,000 hogs

Grain and soybeans
Warm and wet across Midwest with some flooding
Volume even lighter ahead of reports Friday
Corn usage watch ethanol
Ethanol production today
Soybean crush is a key component
Corn acres 95.3 m and soybeans 78 m
Yields are more important right now corn seen up 27% from a year ago
Winter wheat 45% poor to very poor and 27% fair
Kansas harvest improving as they go north
Mixed night trade