Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/27/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/27/2013 Market Watch with Gary Wilhelmi


S&P up 10 at 1613 with resistance at 1687
Dow 114 higher and NASDAQ plus 25
Gold falls another $28 to $1200 or $600 off the recent high
Dollar steady at 82.96
WTI crude oil $96.77 up $1.27
Fund buying, so as to paper the house, regarding positions at the end of the quarter, is an old game
Fed policy further complicated by internal disagreement

Cattle cash waited for Friday, bid $117 and offered at $122
Choice beef has lost $14 off its recent high to $197
Beef is cheap versus pork cut out which is up $3.50 thus far this week
$123.50 is resistance in August cattle with a close at $122.52
New high hogs at $99.25 driven by hog virus
Exports were strong in both at 20,000 tons of beef and 18,600 tons of pork
Pork demand has softened at these high prices

Grain and soybeans
September wheat dropped down below $6.75 support
Dec corn held above $5.30 at $5.38
Nov beans were tame at $12, 75 with next support at $12.50
Export sales were in wheat at 731,000, some better in beans at 360,000 tons to China and corn remains the laggard at 151,000 of new crop.
Acres tomorrow with 95.3 m corn and 78 m beans expected
Yield is the main question and as of now prospects looks good in corn and beans
Stocks report guesses 750 m wheat, 441 m beans and 2.856 b corn
Watch ethanol usage and soybean crush
172,000 tons of beans to an unknown is minor
Grains at 11 AM CDT and pig crop at 2.00 PM CDT
Wheat suffering comes from large Black sea production

11:35 update

Interesting territory:

S&P resistance 1687 with last at 1617
August cattle $123.50 $122.95
August hogs at their peak $98.97
Dec corn support 7 cents below at $5.30
September wheat have been low at $5.75 ½ on support
Nov beans mid range with support at $12.50 gap and $12.20

Opening Comment

Stocks called higher on reports
Jobless claims down 9000
Consumer spending up .3%
DAX up .3% and FTSE .8% better
S&P resistance at 1600 and 1687
Stocks have ridden through the sequester, tax hikes and various foreign crisis’s
Fund supporting markets at the end of the 2 nd quarter
Gold pummeled by deflationary realities at $1231 down from near $1800
WTI crude oil $95.97 up $.47 in range
Dollar index at 82.96 is shopping in the attic

$117 b and $122 a on cattle
Choice boxed beef down to $197 from high of $211
Weights near last year
Feeder cattle index down on supply
Pork cut out up $91 with loins $1.83, hams off $1.64 and bellies up $4.35
Pig crop expectations: 100.6% all, 100% breeding and 100.6% marketing’s
Kills off 9000 cattle and up 20,000 hogs
Exports improved 20,000 tons of beef and 18,600 tons of pork

Grain and soybeans
Silent night at mixed prices
Weekly exports 731,000 tons of wheat, 337,000 old corn and 151,000 new with beans old crop 14,000 tons and new 360,000 with China in for 360,000 tons
Rains passing through Corn Belt with warm drier days ahead
Corn acres 95.3 expected and beans 78 m
Yields are the key and corn both will be up from last year’s drought experience
No crop estimate until August
Sensitive time over next month and one-half
Stocks report feature ethanol demand on corn and crush in beans
Report 11 AM CDT Friday and Pigs after the close
Watch $6.75 low on September wheat