Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants 6/6/2013 Market Update with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 6/6/2013 Market Update with Gary Wilhelmi


Stocks bounce again, on a speculative charge, closing 80 higher on the Dow, 23 NASDAQ and up 10 on the S&P
The dollar index fell 1.06 to 81.53, now we will see if this converts to export activity
Export sales are running at 120% of target versus an 83% norm in soy meal, 87% versus 77% in beans
The grains are not so great on pat in wheat at 97%, as the season ends, and corm 91% against 95%, but recently quite poor
Last week there was not much in old crop sales and new crop was poor in corm at 51,000 with wheat 665,000 tons and beans 686,000 both just fair
WTI crude oil was up $86 at $94.72 a middling position
Gold gained $14
Mortgage rates are at 18 month highs
Unions are opposing Obama care now due to insurance issues
Congress is twisting the tails of the high living IRS

July hogs broke up to the upside and now resistance is at $98-99 on the weekly chart
August cattle firmed $ .60 but is still at mid range
Hog virus is part of the rally power in swine
Choice beef fell another $1.32 to $203 or $8 off last weeks high
Pork cutout was weak
Hog slighter has been light at 408,000 due to transportation issues
That tighter supply also aided in the rally

Grain and soybeans
Wash back spread movement with new crop corn and soybeans gaining on the near by
Corn advancing into its prime development phase
Rain makes grain, but flooding does not
More rain active in the Midwest, but 6-10 day forecast is drier, so beans will roar into their second half of plantings
Low protein Argentine soy meal; helped that market to get to its high at $465 on the July
Tight old crop soybeans also have impacted the crush
Oregon wheat arrives in South Korea without GMO complaints
Dec corm were low at $ 5.39 1/2 testing their support but closed at $5.50, at mid range

12:28 update

Dow off 60 or about a 5% correction, whereas, 10-20 % is the norm
The computer dominated market has thus far not allowed for such a correction
WTI crude is up $1.43 to $96.17
Refinery outages have driven gas to $4.26 locally
Grains mixed as Nov beans pull back 7 cents to $12.93
July hogs push ahead to reach $96.12 up $ 1.60

10:03 update

No rebound yet with Dow up 14, in what has been a resilient computer spec driven stock market
Grains and oilseeds continue to crawl along the unchanged line
July hogs holding rally above resistance
Corn export sales for 13/14 were actually just 51,000 tons, a pittance
Corn crop condition updates will now take center stage
Soybean planters will roll like thunder next week, if it doesn’t really thunder

9:51 update

Dow up 20 at opening
NASDAQ 14 higher
Hogs push to upside at $95.45 above resistance on July
August cattle flat at mid range
Grains and soybeans quietly mixed
Gulf bids on corn 5 lower and down 3 on beans
6-10 day weather looks good for plantings as beans enter second half
First cargo of Oregon wheat arrives in S Korea without a GMO incident


ECB holds rates steady and Euro stocks recede slightly after the announcement
US jobless claims 11,000 lower at 345,000 and stocks called a little higher after diving 217 points on the Dow yesterday
Employment Friday
WTI crude up $ .58 at $94.32 at mid range
Gold $1404 up $6 continuing a quiet week
Dollar index also range bound at 82.44 off 16
In Washington the various scandals are putting a hammer lock on policy advancement

Cash cattle are bid at $121 and offered at $126, so stuck
Boxed beef mixed with choice down $ .89, in a continuing reaction to record prices and select up $ .48
Features are even more budgetary
Beef exports light at 12,800 and pork lighter at 6,000 tons
Slaughter on par in cattle at 124,000 and short on norm at 408,000 hogs
Pork cutout down $ .54 on carcass, $1.30 loins, steady hams and off $1 in bellies

Grain and soybeans
Development now the issue in corn at about 95% planted
Soybeans have time to work with and are over 50% done, but 20% behind the average
Old crop corn basis down a dime
Export sales finishing off 12/13 and new crop 665,000 tons of wheat, 598,000 corn and 686,000 soybeans all a little sub par
The dollar index is at mid range
Rains make grains but too much makes floods
Meal demand positive is reflected in the crush
Ethanol production off 10% for the year versus 8$ expected and has been that way for months
Minimal variation in night trade