Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 1-10-13 Evening Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 1-10-13 Evening Comment with Gary Wilhelmi


S&P at 5 year high 1472
Dow closed up 80
NASDAQ advanced 16
Next week earnings shift into high gear and that will be a better test
Earnings are the most accurate reading of the markets as reports can be tinkered with, but the collective earnings give a meaningful measure
Basically, you have to make money to spend money in hiring, unlike the government
Dollar index down 80 to 79.75 and that encourages speculative buying in gold, a hard asset
Crude also rose $.81 to $93.87

Cash cattle $128 down south and $205 on northern beef, both little changed
Boxed beef mixed
Beef exports 11,800 just fair
Pork cutout weak in loin’s and hams with bellies better
Cattle are lurking in the upper levels and hogs just the reverse

Grain and soybeans
USDA report at 11 CST, which seams foolish to me, as that is right in the middle of the traditional trading session, when the volume of trade is at its peak. (Disruptive)
Corn stocks 8.2 b and crop at 10.7 b (6 year low)
Soybeans 2.37 b and 2.93 b
Winter wheat plantings at a 4 year high, but conditions are compromised by on going dryness
Argentine flooding has hurt corn and soybeans regarding disease risk
Chinese soybean imports at 58.3 MT were up 11% last year
Exceedingly light trade and market action coming into the reports

11:44 update

Reminder USDA crop reports are now released at 11 CST, right in the middle of the traditional session.
China bean imports were up 11% last year to 58.3 MT
Wheat plantings at a four year high
Corn crop at six year low due to drought
Dollar index off 64 at 79.92 has offered no help to grains and oilseeds with support at about 78 and resistance at 82


Earnings start positive but thousands to go
Jobless claims jump to 375,000
New Fed rules on risky mortgages
Chinese December exports up 14% versus 5% expected
Japan revs up stimulus efforts
ECB interest rate meeting expected to make no changes
Crude up $1.08 to $94.18 on Chinese growth
DAX up .2%
FTSE .8% better
Gold $1663 and some see a $1900 target as money printing remains aggressive and the hard asset wins fans
Dollar pulls back 17 at 80.37 and still within range
Dow call maybe .2% higher

Southern cattle trade at $128 and northern beef at $205
Boxed beef choice up $.44 and select down $.22
Kansas cattle offer $130
Cattle slaughter expected less than 600,000
Good rain in Texas pasture area
Pork cutout volume 121 loads with carcass off $.07, loin’s down $1.41, hams $2.46 lower and bellies up $7.94
Beef exports 11,800 tons is fair

Grain and soybeans
Mild position balancing ahead of reports
S Korea rejects corn offers on price
Egyptian optional origin wheat tender not set
Gulf wheat more competitive
2” added to draught on mid Mississippi
Majority of HRW area rated disaster area
Kansas wheat just 24% good to excellent or about one-half the norm
Wheat 233,000 tons 64% below four week average, Corn almost non existent 12,600, soybeans poor at 321,000, as China 241,000 turns to S American supplies