Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 1-17-13 Evening Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 1-17-13 Evening Comment with Gary Wilhelmi


Dow backs away from multi year high on light volume
S&P at 5 year high
Ctitigroup earnings poor
Intel due and GE tomorrow
Be on guard for an exploding bond bubble
Friday will be an interesting conclusion to the week
Crude oil up $1.08
Gold quiet
Dollar index off 13 at 79.68 and still range bound

Cattle hammered again off $1.72 on April at support
Choice beef down $1.05
Hogs held an $.82 recovery rally but are near support
The coming deep freeze will complicate transportation of hogs and development of cattle in feedlots

Grain and soybeans
Profit taking is fitting considering the technical recovery rallies we have seen after a pronounced down trend
Soybean exports robust at 1.6 MT with over one half coming from China (848,000)
A short cold snap is normal, but remember the rivers don’t have as flow as usual
Brazilian corn estimate 74.7 MT and fresh private soybean guess 84 MT
Argentina needs rain to attain a 28 MT corn crop
Watch volume at CME as speculators may have lost their lust for Ag commodities, but that could rapidly change with a dry spring and that remains the pattern.

12:06 update

Dow up 87 at 13,598 with 52 week high at 13,661
S&P at 5 year high
Feb cattle as low as $128.05
Boxed beef off $1.05 ob choice
Pork 1Q production off 515 m # versus 4Q
Iraq buys 300,000 tons of Australian and Canadian wheat
EU wheat licenses 10.4 MT versus 7.7 last year
180,000 tons of beans sold out of new crop
Brazilian latest private corn estimate 74.7 MT against 71 MT from the USDA and beans 84 MT versus USDA at 82.5

10:11 update

Dow up 33
30 cargoes to beans to China rumored
1,608 MT of bean sales with China taking 848,000
Pre open volume light in a mixed trade in grains and oilseeds
Cattle recover to $129 on Feb
Feb hogs rally $1 on higher loin’s at plus $1.81

Morning Comment

Home construction up 12%
Jobless claims at 5 year low at 335,000
Philly Fed expected off
Bank of America earnings a bit better after double digit declines
Citigroup revenues down 4%
Crude oil $95.12 up $.88
Gold $1672 down $10
Dollar index 13 lower at 79.68
DAX index up .7% and FTSE .3% higher on US data
Euro steady versus the dollar
Dow opens 44 higher

Cash cattle fall to $124-125
Large delivery threat weighs on Feb cattle which dropped below $129 support
Choice boxes up $.37 and selects $1.28 higher
Corn rally has firmed cattle
Carcass weights 29# heavier
Beef exports up to 18,000 tons
Pork cutout on 84 loads up $.49, with loin’s $1.81 higher and hams steady
Slaughter totals just a few thousand higher

Grain and soybeans
Fund volume light as short covering has run its course
Profit taking curbs markets
S Korea passed on wheat as rally trims demand
Corn demand is out of line with USDA estimate
Interior basis levels firm as Mississippi rises
US corn $28-30 per ton over S America
Bitter cold descends out of western Canada
Weekly exports; 536,000 tons of wheat with Egypt leading at 148,000 tons, corn 393,000 light again and soybeans 1,1608 with China buying 848,000