Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 1-17-13 Evening Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 1-17-13 Evening Comment with Gary Wilhelmi


Dow off 34, NASDAQ up 6 and S&P unchanged
Crude up $.89 on light inventories and demand
Dollar dead in the water, as was gold
JP Morgan reports in line, but Goldman positive
B of A and Citigroup yet to come this week along with GE Friday

Feb cattle broke down through support at $129 to close at $128.60
Cash bids off $2 at $123
Boxed beef just mixed
Pork demand varies
Feb hogs minimal change
Features mixed and in the cheaper cuts

Grain and soybeans
March corn settled for a draw
March soybeans 23 higher on Chinese rumors
March wheat up 4
S plains remain dry giving rise to filling concerns
Winter kill in Russia with temps close to 50 below in some places
US wheat inconsistent as a competitor
Algeria buys 400,000 tons of French wheat
Ethanol production down and that’s a drag on corn
Argentina dry, but was soaked so all is not lost and Brazil gets more good rains in Mato Grosso and north
India has 10 MT of wheat to sell
Argentina may limit corn exports
$14.50 next resistance in March soybeans, $8.10 wheat and $7.50 corn


11:01 update

Dow firms slightly at 33 lower after steady housing confidence report
Crude up $.12 on positive supply and demand appraisals and Saudi’s cut of 500,000 in output
Industrial production up .8% versus .3% expected

10:14 update

Dow off 57
Feb cattle $130 or $1 above support and Feb hogs $85.47 plus $2 over support
Less winter wheat seeding and Russian winter kill
Wheat is not consistently competitively priced
India plans to export 10 MT of wheat
Argentine soybeans cut to 53 MT off 1 MT on dryness and corn is hurt more
Watch for possible export cap on Argentine corn
Soybean basis steady to lower as is nearby corn with spring corn steady to higher
Resistance $7.50 March corn $14.50 beans and $8.10 wheat

Pre open Dow off 50, NASDAQ down 25 and S&P 4 lower
CPI unchanged
Bank reports in line at JP Morgan with Goldman yet to come
World Bank reduced global growth to 2.4 % from 3%
Industrial production expected at +.3%
Capacity utilization steady at 78.5
Regional econ measure “Beige Book” PM
FTSE off .4%
DAX down .1%
Gold $5 lower at $1678
Dollar at mid range
Crude $93.58 off $.30

Cash cattle bid $123 down from $125
Wintry weather slightly cuts cattle performance
Feb cattle held above support
Boxed beef off $.63 choice and up $.16 select
Kill 128,000 and 431,000 both on par
Pork cutout 104 loads with carcass up $.34, loin’s plus $1.92 and hams steady
Features: chicken breasts $1.68, English beef roast $2.78, London broil $3.48, 5# ground beef $1.99 at 73% and boneless center cut pork roast $2.69

Grain and soybeans
March corn up 4 cents, beans up 14 and wheat 6 better
Technical forces continue to drive the markets
Watch recent highs as key resistance levels
Ethanol production key 10% improvement
Feed consumption leading demand component
Export inspections now must be watched
Brazil latest bean estimate 81 MT
Argentina dry but was exceedingly wet
S plains remain dry raising questions of filling
Watch river tonnage as winter remains dry—no measurable snow in Chicago for about 325 days