Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 1/28/2013 Evening Comment Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 1/28/2013 Evening Comment Gary Wilhelmi


The stock markets are without direction as Washington diverts its attention from serious issues of economic conditions to political pandering for votes on immigration and gun control.
A 4.3% fall in new home pending construction offset a higher Durable goods report of up 4.6%
Durable goods, historically, has been a tainted measure as it covers items beyond consumer consumption

A triumvirate of a bullish COF report, an over sold cattle futures market and an expansion Japanese beef buying parameters sent the markets up almost limit.
Cash cattle are offered at $128
Last Friday boxed beef sold off $2 on choice
Hogs were just a tag along market today closing slightly higher

Grain and soybeans
A record SA soybean production is possible, but the US crop is still in the province of the spring weather.
If both areas have large crops prices of soybeans will move lower perhaps by 15% or so
Right now the prospects for a large corn crop are better based on current profitability, but the drought pattern is unbroken so the range of price possibilities is quite large.
Wait and see is the only thing to do.
Trade volume is quite light with all the economic and meteorically uncertainty.
The gunslinger speculators have checked their side arms for now, but the casino mentality I still with us.

11:56 update

Stocks dead in the water
November soybeans could fall to between $11-12 in US and SA has full production
SA looks good right now with Brazil 82-85 MT
US prospects are in the hands of the weather gods, but there is a profit motive to plant corn presently
Cattle bounced out of an over sold condition motivated by the COF

10:48 update

Dow off 23, S&P down 5 at 1497 and NASDAQ down 1 at 3148, all near their highs
April cattle up $1.45 on COF report
April hogs trail along behind up $.37
Grains and soybeans hardly changed
Volume extremely light at 9:30 with 14,000 corn 23,000 beans and 7000
If full crops are realized in SA and US soybean prices could drop to losses in the teens

Durable goods up 4.6% in December from .8% in November
CAT 4Q off 55%
Dow up 10 points
Economist’s consensus sees better growth
December home sales at 9 AM CST expected up .1% and 12.5 % year to year
Yahoo and others earnings out today
WTI crude up at $96.64 and Brent crude $113.61
Gold $1654 down $4
Dollar index 79.75 up 5
JY at 7 month high
Politically tainted immigration and guns debates at center stage as economic woes are too tough to handle

COF bullish at 95% total versus 96% expected, placements 99% against 104% and marketing’s 98% versus 91%
Cash offered at $128
Boxed beef down $2 late at $188 choice
Slaughter up 25,000 over last week at 625,000
Hogs kill 63,000 lighter at 2,159,000
Capitulation trade had occurred in cattle
Pork cutout up $.41 on carcass, $1/06 loin’s and hams $.82 higher with volume moderate at 51,000

Grain and soybeans
Narrow ranging night trade
S/D tug of war likely over next few weeks
Argentina to get rain in 6-15 day period
Brazilian harvest advances finding above average yields of beans
2nd largest ethanol producer in Macon, Mo. closes
CFTC corn managed money add’s 9659 longs, soybeans 18,318 and wheat 2990
Spec trade has waned in all venues
Typical winter week ahead but with little moisture
Barge hits bridge at Vicksburg but is not related to low water levels, it appears.

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