Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/11/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/11/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi


Dow drifts down 21 points and S&P and NASDAQ little changed
WTI up $1.27 and Brent crude down $.61 in a spread correction partially incited by European statements
Gold $16 lower consistently through the day
Dollar quietly up 7
Washington braces for hard nosed state of union Tuesday, there just isn’t any compromising

Cattle and hogs on the bottom with no short covering
Boxed beef up $.27 with good movement last week
Margins dive deeper into the red in both meats
Seasonal demand improvement possible but not evident
December pork exports sluggish
Watch path of heavy storm moving east out of the Dakota’s

Grain and soybeans
March corn on $7.05 support with next stop $6.90
March wheat takes out $7.50 support closing at $7.41 ½
March soybean off $.20 at $14.32 with support at $14.00
Brazilian soybeans crop prospects increasing and Argentina gets some rain
US could produce 14.4 b bushels of corn and 3.3 b of beans if the weather cooperates, but and that’s a big but.
Chinese New Years extends for 10 days
Brazilian soybean harvest moving toward their ports
March corn exceeds 62 % retracement point versus January top.
Weekly export inspections 22.5 m wheat, 14 m corn and 30 m beans all below expectations

10:21 update

Dow off 45
April cattle down over $1 with no clear support
April hogs test $86-85.50
Will seasonal demand aid meats?
Rains in S Brazil and Argentine corn pollinating areas
Brazilian soybean harvest moving toward ports
March corn at 62% retracement from January highs


Morning Comment

US stocks called a bit better
Washington tunes up bickering as sequester and debt ceiling debates intensify
Blizzard is a short term disruption to economy unlike the hurricane out east.
French industrials production down .1% from +.5% in November
China passes US in trade
WTI off $.61 to $95.09 and Brent down $1.61 to $117.61 in profit taking
Gold boundaries $1600 to 1700
Dollar spins at 80.30 up 6
Euro stocks ease with Spanish debt

Cattle slaughter drops to 593,000 from 621,000 as packers adjust control of price efforts
Boxed beef down $1.39 choice and $1.51 select
Futures fell sharply last week
Pork cutout up $.54 carcass, $2.41 loin’s with hams off $.52
Pork exports at record level in 2012
Hog kill 2,139,000 vs. 2,176,000 previous weeks
The timing of the snow storm was such that weekend needs were largely covered and a warm up will allow for rapid restocking of larders

Grain and soybeans
Chart damage in March soybeans down to $14.37 ($14 round number support) with grains testing support levels at $7.05 March corn and $7.50 March wheat
Chinese New Year next 10 days
S American carnival ends Tuesday
Spring weather now the key as drought spreads in Midwest and persists in plains
Watch the Palmer drought index
Cotton crop seen smallest in 20 years
Bench mark acreages 97 million corn and 77 million soybeans
Major storm heads for Northern states and a possible relapse out east
Weekend blizzard was too far east to help rivers