Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/12/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/12/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi


Dow up 47 at 14,018 or within 1% of its all time high
S&P 500 all time top 1566
74% of earnings out of 354 companies reporting have exceeded their target
88% of home markets post higher prices
Crude up about $.50 in both versions
Dollar index off 23 at 80.08 as G7 nations said they would not intentionally weaken currencies
State the Union speech will be more political then substantive

The sequester would furlough meat inspectors idling 6000 meat plants, and that threat pounded down cattle and hogs down to new lows for the move
Late short covering dressed up markets a bit
Cash cattle too early to measure
Cash hogs $.50-1.00 lower
Margins in both meats remain deeply in the red
A snap back rally is due, but seasonal demand improvements is more of an old saw then fact

Grain and soybeans
All markets ground down to new lows for the move
March corn is testing the $6.90 support
March beans $14.00
March wheat is looking at $700 support
The old crop new crop corn spread corrected as the Dec gained 4 cents as March fell 8 cents
Volume swelled to 180,000 contracts of March corn and 108,000 March beans
S American crops are offsetting as Brazils gain more than cover Argentina’s small bean loss
US spring weather is a guessing game with the east maybe wetter and dryness unrelieved in the Central or Western areas
Chinese New Year extends for 10 days and then they will likely return to their bean buying ways
Ag Outlook conference approaches but that is just a ball park guess fest

10:36 update:

Tonight’s speech will be in the form of a political stump speech, as they usually are
Nearby cattle at a premium to cash
Moisture in panhandles, but not much in dry western Kansas
Volumes light
Aussie wheat 22 MT down from 29 MT with 21 MT for export
China on 10 day holiday so buying is at rest
Gulf corn steady
Grain and soybean futures are sounding for a bottom so watch for short covering

Morning Comment:

Dow flat pre speech
Many Fed officials will also speak today
Dollar steady
Gold near unchanged
WTI up $.37 and Brent crude up $.38
Nikkei 2% higher
DAX down .2%
G 20 meets in Moscow this weekend and will not target exchange rates

Lower slaughter 118,000 Monday
Seasonal demand upswing normal in meats
April cattle support at $129.50 and hogs at $86
Choice boxes up $.60 and select down $.47
Pork cutout 30 loads with carcass off $.52, loin’s $.69 and hams $.64

Grain and soybeans
March corn $7.00 with support at $6.90
March soybeans $14.35 with support at $14.00
March wheat $7.39 after breaking support at $7.50
Dec corn $5.70 support
Baseline corn yield tentative at 163.5 bpa
Ag Forum Outlook next week will contain a ball park set of prospects
Spring weather is next major determinant
Brazilian bean harvest 10% done and moving toward ports
Another port strike is possible for 2-19, and that is normal this time of year
Good dry down temps in Brazil