Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/13/2013 Evening Comments With Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/13/2013 Evening Comments With Gary Wilhelmi


Another episode of political babble properly had little market impact
Dow ends off 36
WTO crude about $.40 lower on US oil output reported at a 20 year high
Gold quietly down $7
Dollar index ended in a draw
Now its is back to finger pointing, which is similar to Nero’s fiddle playing while Rome burned

Light short covering brought cattle up off their low, but still closed down $.62 on April
High gas prices are squeezing out some consumer meat demand
Beef and pork exports in December were both off 14%
April hogs were mired in their sty closing near unchanged
Pork cuts were mixed but hams gains $6.10, it is early for Easter bookings bit this trade is symptomatic
Cash hogs tone steady to easier

Grain and soybeans
All markets have gone from being bloated with speculative long position to a downside over load, but short covering never got going today
Corn has dropped over $.50, beans better than $.60 and wheat 25 cents plus, but you still need a reason to rally
Weather forecasting, especially in the long term, is like going to see the wizard of Oz
Spring conditions can always be extremely fickle, so don’t hitch your star the predictions of any star gazer
There will weather scares to stimulate the market and you must use them to your marketing advantage, but never all at once, be patient and lean into rallies
Thursday we have the weekly export sales and crush
Grain trade has been scarce and soybeans are waiting out the end of Chinese New Year still about 8 days away
Watch the rumor mill for signs of Russian and Brazilian wheat interest, and there is business pending from the Middle east, but they have been buying elsewhere
Corn is relatively cheap, but remember immediate supplies are tight

10:54 update

Dow off 19
Business inventories up.1% versus a .3% expectation
Retail sales up .1% vs. a flat expectation
Grain export demand sluggish
French wheat socks rise slightly as EU and domestic demand recedes
Meats can not get out of the mud at lows

Morning Comment

State of the Union non economic factor
Retail sales up .1% from .5% in December as payroll tax hike impacts wallets
St Louis Fed President to speak today
Business inventory report this morning
Dow pre open up 20
WTI crude $97.82 up $.32 and Brent $.7 higher at $118.73 both reacting to APL inventory decline
Gold $ 1647 up $1
Dollar index 80.00 down 12
DAX .6% higher and FTSE up .2%

Light cattle trade off $1-2 at $123-124
Boxed beef choice up $.73 and select plus $.15
Beef and pork exports in December down 14%
Slaughter levels on par withy last week
Pork cutout 105 loads with carcass up $.93, loin’s down $.79 and hams $6.10 higher
Features: Pork sirloin $1.88, Perdue legs and thighs $.68 and English roast $3.49

Grain and soybeans
Another sinker March corn $6.91 off 6, March soybeans $14.11 down 9 and march wheat $7.26 6 lower
Support points $6.90, $14.00 and $7.00
Major fund liquidation has driven declines of $.43 in corn, $.61 beans and $ .21 wheat in last 8 days
Cash along the Illinois River was nil
Thursday export sales and crush
S Korea buys non US corn
Watch for short covering in all markets
Nature will determine this year’s crops and that is a mystery