Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/19/2013 Evenging Comment With Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/19/2013 Evenging Comment With Gary Wilhelmi


Dow over 14,000, S&P above 1525 and NASDAQ north of 3200 were all break outs
Merger and acquisition talk motivated the trade, but the OfficeMax-Office Depot deal is not constructive as both are struggling
4Q earnings are wrapping up with about 75% beating estimates, but expectations were modest
German sentiment exceeded forecasts and ran the DAX up 1.6%, or vice versa
WTI crude firms to $96.67 up $ .80
Gold dawdles off $5
The dollar index trimmed its sails off 17 at 80.45 with an 81 resistance

April cattle dove to $129.30 just above limited support
April hogs powered down to $83.07 and showed no signs of life
The markets are over sold, but a takes a demand spark to light the fuse
Hogs have dropped about $8 this month
Large snow storm may impair movement and curb weight gain
Spring demand timing is about as reliable as the ground hog (39%)

Grain and soybeans
March soybean romp up $.45 to $14.69 with resistance at $14.90
Grains were ground down to support at $9.95 in March corn and $7.32 wheat
Heavy snow starting Thursday in Nebraska, E Colorado, and Iowa going on a northeast tract would help some winter wheat and parts of dry western Corn Belt
Weekly export inspections were positive in soybeans at 40 million bushels, fair in wheat at 30 m and abysmal in corn at 9.5 m
China bought 120,000 tons of 12/13 soybeans as they come off their lunar holiday
The wild and wooly soybean trade was a resumption of speculative excessive volatility
A disappointing rain event added to the strength in soybeans

11:38 update

Argentine rains fall short of expectations and Chinese coming off of lunar holiday drive soybeans up 30 cents
Grains fall 6 cents in March corn and 11 cents in wheat
At $6.92 March corn is just over support at $6.90
April hogs have dropped $7.00 this month
April cattle $.77 lower at $129.67 eyes support near $129

Morning Comment

Financial German sentiment index rises to 48 from 32 with 35 expected
DAX up 1.2%
Dow pre open little changed
Earnings winding down and 75% have beat estimates versus low expectations
Crude little changed
Gold near steady
Dollar up 2 at 80.61 with resistance at 81

Winter storm ads to woes of northeast
Clear in feedlot country raises weights
Spring demand improvement ahead
Consumers may be tiring of chicken specials
Cash offers at $127
Choice beef down $1.58 and select up $.80
Weekly kill 3000 higher in cattle and 6000 in hogs
Pork cutout 34 loads with carcass off $.10, loins down $1.41 and hams up $.23

Grain and soybeans
March corn steady at $6.98, March beans up $.19 at $14.43 as China comes off holiday and March wheat unchanged at $7.42
USDA Ag outlook Friday is expected to be bearish, but it is just best guesses so be mindful
Over sold indications are present
Selling in Nov beans at $12.82 and Dec corn has resistance at $5.70
Brazilian soybean harvest nears 25%
Brazilian port delays will begin to be relieved
Low water makes it hard to float a boat on the Mississippi
Befuddled US financial (politics) markets no help to Ag