Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/21/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/21/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi


Dow off 47 at 13,880 with closest support at 13,550 and deeper support at 12,500 or about a 10% correction
Crude down $2 + as US inventories added to the pressure
As crude drops gas rises perhaps to $5 per gallon locally as summer dive time approaches and blend changes reduce refinery output
Add higher payroll taxes and slow tax refunds and the consumers wallet is thinned out
Dollar chugs up to 81.39 or 32 better and that inhibits our exports
Gold calmed down closing near unchanged, but rumors persist regarding liquidation coming out of a troubled hedge fund

April cattle and hogs both finished $.57 lower
Support under cattle is at $127 and $80-81 in hogs
Winter storm should not harm demand much as consumers have been forewarned, and a quick warm up is also forecast
Major markets will not be in the storms path like out east

Grain and soybeans
March beans were just shy of $14.90
March corn right on $6.90 and March wheat got hammered down to $7.21
Export sales Friday will feature bean business to China, perhaps 5-10 cargoes and maybe some wheat, but corn prospects are slim, continuing their trend
Short term port strike in Brazil is business as usual
Brazil’s harvest is moving ahead and about 81 MT + is forecast
The problems in Argentina are well discounted at these highs
The best assumption on corn and soybean plantings is that the mix will be normal if the weather allows
USDA Ag outlook conference will produce some headlines, but no certainties

11:51 update

Dow off 60
March corn down 9 at $6.91 with support $6.90-85
March wheat down 16 at $$7.22 with $7.00 just a one time support point
March soybean $14.84 with resistance at $14.90-15
Meats probe down side with support at $127 on April cattle and $80-81 hogs