Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/25/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/25/2013 Evening Comment With Gary Wilhelmi


Italy’s inability to form a working government and our failure to compromise in Washington, regarding our financial problems, came together to create, a not surprising plummet in the stock market.
The Dow closed down 216 point’s, the S&P off 28 and well below 1500 and NADAQ got hammered for 45 point loss
Italy has been a dysfunctional nation since the fall of Rome, and we may be in the early stages of a similar fate.
Crude oil reversed to close $.87 lower
The Gold bugs came back to life up $22
The dollar index also gained 29 up to 81.79, as screwed up as we may be, we are still doing better then Europe. Some see the dollar rising as high as 89 long term.

Cattle and hogs failed to find a spark to set off a short covering rally.
Remember that short covering is the weakest form of buying
Cash cattle firmed $2 late last Friday but that did not translate into the futures
Cash hogs were steady to $1 lower
The meats are hurt by spiraling gas prices
Our economy for many of us is not running at a porterhouse level

Grain and soybeans
All markets finished down on the deck or below
May wheat broke the $7.10 line
March corn was barely over $6.90
May soybeans moved toward $14 and the $13.80 supports
S American crops look adequate to cover the bases.
Argentina got rain in 50% of its soybean country with broader coverage forecast for Thursday as their development enters the home stretch
Brazil has been solid at about 81-82 MT for weeks
China bought a small amount of soybeans, 120,000 tons, and will be more active now that their lunar holiday period is over.
Weather watch is on in East Europe and before long here at home.
Snow cover has spread over much of the winter wheat area, but the jury is far from reaching a decision on the Corn Belt.
The Ag markets are over sold, but that not does not translate into a rally without reason, but be on guard, as things are likely to get excessively volatile.
In this speculative computer driven environment often the only thing that makes sense is nonsense.


11:03 market action update

Support levels:
March corn $6.90
Nov soybeans $12.55
May wheat $7.10
April cattle $128
April hogs $80-81

10:43 update

Dow up 63
S&P at 1525 resistance
April cattle $128.57 off $.65 and April hogs $81.10 down $.55
Both over sold
Cols storage a little larger in beef and lower in pork, but 3.4% above a year ago
Cash hogs called steady to $1 lower
Meat demand in doubt
Light Ag trade
China buys 120,000 tons of beans for 13/14 and more is expected directly
127,000 of corn to unknown
Corn is more attractively priced globally but business remains bad
Winter storm brings snow cover to HRW areas

Morning Comment

Dow opens 41 higher
April WTI crude $94.08 up $.95
Gold $17 better at $1589
Dollar down 25 points at 81.25
DAX .2% higher and FTSE .6%
Italian election expected to result in a hung parliament
Sequester pending Friday with no real compromise obvious
$85 billion in cuts would be the result of government nonsense
Dallas Fed business measure today and the President of the Atlanta Fed speaks
438 companies out of 500 have reported 4Q earnings and 70% have exceeded estimates versus a 62% average
10 year bond 1.987%

Packer pushed cattle bids up $2 late Friday to $125
Shorts getting squeezed
Texas-Oklahoma panhandle blizzard
Retail beef average $5.25
Kill 573,000 down from 596,000
Meat inspector’s furloughs at risk
Chinese pay lean objections continue in pork
Hog kill 2,066,000 from 2,145,000
Pork cutout 24 loads with carcass down $.21, loin’s $1.67 lower and hams up $.06

Grain and soybeans
Market creep into the week quietly
March corn support $6.78 ½
Nov beans $12.55
Argentina gets rain in 50% of soybean land with larger coverage coming Thursday
Rumors of S American soybeans coming into US, but that is all economics
Weekly export sales were light
China has just come off of their lunar 10 day holiday
China rumored to have bought 9 cargoes of soybeans, which is business as usual
Crop outlook by USDA is just guess work as nature will determine the size and quality of out crops