Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/4/2013 11:42 update Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/4/2013 11:42 update Gary Wilhelmi


11:42 update

March corn brackets $7.00 -7.50, March beans $14.50-15.01 and March wheat $7.50-8.10

10:53 update

Come backer rally in equities
Earnings have been mostly good at past the half way point
Weaker pork cutout lead factor in meats
Corn demand is central theme and exports have been poor as 36 ethanol plants have closed
Wheat demand is limited as there are many more competitive producers, there used to be just 5 majors
Chinese pre New Years buying has been the feature in soybeans and it starts 2-9

Morning Comment

Routine corrective action in stocks motivated by Europe’s lingering economic problems
It is possible that equities could break 10% in a normal adjustment
The firming dollar is another measure of European woes
Earnings continue to come out at about the half way point of the reports

Narrow ranging meat trade
Watch for a bottoming action in boxed beef over a period of time
Margins are still inn the red in hogs
Cash steady
Pork cutout was up $1.77 coming into Monday morning

Grain and soybeans
Grains eased a bit as soybean challenged resistance up at $15.01 ¼
S America remains the focal point and will be for a few more weeks
Heavy rain stalled the good looking harvest in Mato Grosso
Logistical delays are common in S American ports this time of year
Egypt bought 60,000 tons of US SRW and watch for additional quantities
Dollar firms and that is a drag on US exports
We have had some snow in Central Corn Belt, but need much more to refill the rivers
S/D update Friday with no great expectations of market moving news

10:53 update

Dow off 11, S&P 10 and NASDAQ 16
WTI crude down $1.41
April cattle up $.62 on inventory report
Watch for sign of low on boxed beef
Egypt buys 60,000 tons of US SRW a small amount
Heavy rains stall bean harvest in Mato Grosso
Gulf corn mixed and soybeans steady to 2 lower
Outsides markets pressure grains
Dollar in range, but up $33 at 79.44
Kazakhstan wheat exports 7.8 MT down from 12.1 MT last year

Morning Comment

Pre open Dow off 41
Revived euro concerns puts DAX down 1.5% and FTSE off 1.2%
Spanish Prime Minister suspected off kick backs
Producer prices down .2% in December
Factory orders seen up 2.3%
Earnings continue with about one-half to go
WTI crude correction down $1.26
Brent crude off $1.08
Dollar firms 73 to 79.45

Cattle inventory off 2% at 1952 level as forecast
Nebraska beef $203 or $128-129
Southern cash $125
Boxed beef fell again off $2.76 on choice
Spread at $4
Cow calf numbers how signs of rebuilding
Margins contract with demand soft
Kill up 400 cattle and 20,000 hogs
Russian meat import ban begins 2-11
Pork cutout 41 loads up $1.77 carcass, $3.23 loin’s and $3.49 hams

Grain and soybeans
Higher night trade wit March corn 2 higher, March beans up 14 and March wheat 5 better
Supply-demand update Friday
Some rain in Argentina and S. Brazil with more in wider coverage expected next week
Current temps not damaging in 80-90’s
Funds add about 13,000 longs in corn, 7000 beans and 3000 wheat
Export feature continues to China in soybeans, as they approach their New Years period
Low water on Mississippi persists slowing the passage of corn and soybeans to the Gulf
Dollar index forms back to near mid range