Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/7/2013 Evening Comment Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/7/2013 Evening Comment Gary Wilhelmi


Dow off 42, S&P and NADAQ down 3
Draghi, the EU leader had a timid appraisal of European recovery prospects this year
Today’s earnings were soft
Jobless claims remain large at 366,000
WTI crude oil down $.86 at $95.76
Brent crude hung neat $117 at a huge $21.31 premium
Gold slipped $14 to $1663
The dollar index held at 80.21 up 49 and that impairs exports

Nothing much doing on Thursday
No cash cattle until Friday with a steady to $1 higher call
Boxed beef mixed
Major blizzard headed for New England, but grocery stores had a good stock up warning
Hogs toil near their bottom with cutout down $1.75

Grain and soybeans
Mach corn at $7.11 near support coming into the S/D report that will be released at 11 AM Friday
Corn carry 600 m, soybeans 130 m and wheat 728 m expected
The grains come in near their support and soybeans near resistance
Soybean exports are at 85% of target versus a 59% norm, corn 56% v 66% and wheat 73% v 87%
Rain possible in Argentina over next few weeks
Current crop guesses are at 53 MT of Argentine beans and 83 MT Brazil
Coming during the session this subjective report has greater potential to set off the computer gunslingers, so beware!!!

11:36 update

Draghi, of EU hopes for tepid recovery adding pressure to stocks
Worst of Eastern storm appears heading for north of New York, and then temps will go up to about 40

11:12 update

Hard turn to downside in stocks
Dow off 117, S%P 11 and NASDAQ 26
US productivity falls 2%
Fresh earnings weaker
Jobless claims post second bad week

10:56 update

RSI’s not extreme coming into S/D report at 45 March corn, 65 March beans and 40 March wheat
Anything above 75 or below 25 is extreme
March corn support at $6.90, March bean resistance at $15.01 and March wheat support at $7.50

Morning Comment

Stocks becalmed at outset and Dow opened down 19
Earnings have been positive but against low expectations
Jobless claims adjusted up to 137,000 last week and 366,000 presently
Bank of England leaves rates unchanged as expected
German industrial production up .3% and UK 1.1%
Spanish yields rise on corruption charges
Fed may slack off on bond buying
10 year yield up 25% since September at 1.98 % may rise to 2.25 % this year
Movement from treasuries to equities has been in evidence
WTI $96.65 up $.18 and Brent widens spread more up $.75 at $117.47
Gold quiet at $1675 up $3
Dollar 79.79 steady with closest resistance at 79.80

Questions on beef additive may spook the market
Big storm headed up east with as much as 2’ of snow beginning Friday AM, so it will be a big day at the grocery stores
Cash 124-125 to $128-130
Boxed beef off $.37 choice and up $.93 select
Beef export light at 9700 tons
Slaughter off 3000 for the week in cattle and up 14,000 hogs
Midwest weather moderate with light snow lurking
Pork cutout 93 loads with carcass down $2.32, loin’s $.36, hams off $.20 and bellies down $8.53
Cattle filled downside gap and hogs fell below $87 on April

Grain and soybeans
Corn off 5 cents, beans up 3 and wheat steady
S/D 11 AM CST Friday
Corn carry 600 m, beans 135 m and wheat 728 m
March soybean resistance close at hand at $15.01 as grains drag
Ethanol production off 17% versus last year as 36 plants have closed
Rains possible in dry Argentina over next two finishing weeks
Argentine bean estimate 53 MT and Brazil 83 MT
Huge storm in New England will not help Midwestern Rivers
Weekly exports: wheat 290.000 tons, corn 169,000 and soybeans 896,000 old crop and 878,000 new mostly to China