Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/6/2013 12:59 update Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants Market Watch 2/6/2013 12:59 update Gary Wilhelmi


Little variance in equities
Crude oil rallied on a positive US inventory report and then settled back to near unchanged
Gold little movement
Dollar up 25 remaining in range
10 year bonds 1.97 % yield have moved up from 1.4 % since last September

April cattle fell to fill a gap on the charts off $1.12
April hogs closed below their $87 support at $86.30
Features: Rib eyes $4.98 and pork steak $1.68
Cash cattle spread still wide between bids and ask
Cash hogs called lower
Pork cutout down $1.62 on carcass

Grain and soybeans
Mixed conclusion
S/D 11 AM CST Friday: corn carryover 600 m, soybeans 135 m and wheat 728 m expected
This is s subjective report based on economic models not surveys
Keep your eye on Europe and Japanese economies
Latest estimates on Argentine beans 53 MT and Brazil 83 MT
Ethanol production down 17% fro last year as 36 plants have been closed
A Chinese soybean demand for their New Year’s period appears covered, but checks out export sales Thursday
Next two weeks are final key to S. American production and forecast is favorable


12:59 update

Equities near unchanged
Crude rallies on lower US inventories
April hogs hold below $87 support so watch the close
April cattle fall to fill the gap left following the COF report
Ethanol production down 17% versus a year ago
Latest estimate on Argentine bean crop 53 MT and 82.6 MT in Brazil
Markets mixed on average volume

10:14 update

Dow off 34
S&P down 4 at 1507 with resistance at 1550
10 year bond 1.98 % up from September low of about 1.4 % or over 25 %
Chinese New year’s week bean buying likely covered
Bean carryover 135 m expected and corn 600 m
Dollar firms up 24
Corn and soybeans retreat on wetter forecast into next week in Argentina and S Brazil
Volume of grain and soybean trade very light
April hog support is at $87 and last at $87.57

Morning Comment

Dow little lower in pre opening
Watch 10 year yields that have risen from 1.4% to over 2%
Bank of Japan leader departure rallies Nikkei as Yen continues to fall
Major media outlets earnings good on political ads
WTI crude backs off $1.37 to $95.37 and Brent down $.60 to $115.93 widening the spread
German factory orders up .8%, but DAX, on other European concerns falls 1.4%
Watch Spanish and Italian banks
Gold quiet
Dollar index up 31 to 79.82

Cattle bids $124-125 with offers at $128-130
Boxed beef up $1.67 on choice
Cattle slaughter off 13,000 for week in effort to firm beef
Wheat feeding more attractively priced than corn
Pork cutout 106 loads with carcass off $1.62, loin’s $1.15, hams $.67 and bellies retreat $4.88
Hog kill up 8000 for week
Warmer weather frees up animal movement
Lead features: Rib eye steak $4.98 and pork steak $1.68

Grain and soybeans
March corn off 8 at $7.21, March beans down 12 at $14.83 and March wheat 5 lower at $7.82
Beans are rich in value and vulnerable to corrective action
CBO guesses corn plantings at 97 million, yield 161.5 and crop at 14.45 b
Soybeans 77 m, Yield 43 and crop of 3.31 b
Carry over’s would then be 1.852 b corn and 289 m beans
Watch Europe and Japan for potential economic strife
S/D 11 AM Friday right in the middle of the session???
Argentina getting some good finishing rains
Next two weeks are the finishing keys to S American production
Brazil average 81-82 MT of soybeans has been stable
India has become a competitor in global wheat