Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 10:53 update with Gary Wilhelmi 11/20/2012

Seed Consultants Market Watch 10:53 update with Gary Wilhelmi 11/20/2012

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10:53 update

Dow off 22, S&P and NASDAQ steady
Unwise spending is one of Europe’s woes, and our own
Gulf bean up 4-9 on Chinese rumors and corn also up on export rumors due to delayed Brazilian shipments
Dollar ranging with boundaries 78-82 with last of 80.97
KC wheat supported by lower HRW ratings at 34% from 36% versus about 50% five year
Light profit taking in hogs
Tighter post holiday supply expectations firm differed hogs
Cash call steady to lower
Key holiday features: turkey, hams and standing rib roasts

 

Financial:
Dow trims 207 point gain by 59
Optimism relating to our finding a resolution for the year end higher taxes and spending cuts fiscal cliff must be contained considering our dismal record of negotiations.
Housing data was constructive for 3Q
Europe remains in a quandary and their inability to deal with their debt problems are a lesson for us.
A partial solution to our fiscal problems would be inadequate
HP takes a hit due to inappropriate accounting
Crude oil relaxes a bit off $.40 to $88.88, but the situation in the Mid East is no better and threatening to spread, after all they have been at it for over 2000 years
Dollar up 9 at 80.97, and analyzing the dollar must be done from a far, as day to day trade is meaningless
DAX down .2% as it continues to be pensive

Livestock
Beef plant margins reported $50-75 in the red
Show lists are slimmer but numbers are seen rising onto years end
Cattle on feed at 95% project tightness
Cash $128-129
Choice boxes up $1 and select steady with the spread at a year’s high of $21
EPA announcement was constructive for cattle and corn, but smells of political payoff
Slaughters at 129,000 cattle and 435,000 hogs both on par
Pork cutout down $.60 with loin’s off $.84, hams $.15 and bellies $2.50 lower as the holiday book is on.

Grain and soybeans
Dec corn off 2 cents at $7.37, Jan beans down 11 at $13.84 and Dec wheat at $8.41 off one penny
Chinese soybean purchase rumors after a 10 cargo cancellation, but with price decline buying makes sense
Capital gains tax threatened increase means more year end tax selling likely
Wheat is off another 2% on g-x rating to 34%, a long term low.
Harvest finished
Low water levels a logistical complication
Environmentalists argue against dredging, which is s long term fact of agricultural life
Brazilian soybeans are 67% successfully planted
Export sales Friday
Friday close will at noon
Expanded US plantings of corn and soybeans expected in 2013, and then it is up to the weather gods.
Producer considerations: margins, break even prices and inputs costs