Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 10:43 update with Gary Wilhelmi 11/29/2012

Seed Consultants Market Watch 10:43 update with Gary Wilhelmi 11/29/2012


10:43 update

DAX at 7400 with 52 week high at about 7468
Boxed movement god at 203 loads
Pork cutout has gained $8.48 in 5 days
Cash hog call steady to higher
Dec hogs at $4 premium to index are vulnerable
Feb hogs high, thus far at $88
Ukraine grain exports could reach 6.5 MT versus previous limit of 5.5 MT
Chinese expected to buy 3-4 MT of soybean in 1Q of 2013
Gulf corn bids a little easier
Over all grain and oilseed trade steady as she goes


Pre open fantasy stocks up 60 on Dow
Jobless claims 393,000 versus a revised 411,000 last week
GDP call 2.7% for last quarter
Slow growth again in Beige book regional economic measure
Fiscal maze continues
Don’t react headline to headline
Crude oil is well supplied and is a good indicator with resistance at $90 last at $87.99 up $1.50 today
Target misses November sales objective
Pending home sales expected up 1%, but new sales yesterday were off .3%
Japanese October retail sales were off 1.2%
Spanish borrowing rates fall 4.5%
DAX up .7%
FTSE up .9%
Dollar index 80.11 down 23 after testing 81 resistance Tuesday
Gold up $2 at $1723
Cash bids $124-130 a
Packer demand may not pick up until new years pricing
Margins are negative
Boxed beef up $39 choice and $.93 select
Wheat good indicator of pasture moisture and it’s down to 33% good-excellent versus 50% long term average
Pork cutout up $.77 with loin’s off $.76 and hams $2.39 higher
Weeks slaughter down 27,000 in cattle and 4000 hogs
Holiday demand appears to be largely covered
Beef export sales 11,600 tons 22% off average
***Grain and soybeans
Grains static and Jan beans up $.10 to $14.56 (boundary $14-$15)
Drought pattern dryness and warmth continues
Never assume that weather conditions are predictable longer term
Reduced volume can make for some volatile sessions
Dollar threatened 81 resistance Tuesday and now is near 80 support
The trend is always the key in evaluating the dollar and is indecisive
Brazilian crop shipments are slow as their soybean harvest approaches
On Brazilian estimates it will take 4-5 years to bring their logistics up to snuff
Ethanol production down 14% from last year
Cattle feed lot placements off 5% and those two factors add up to reduced demand for corn
Western Corn Belt rainfall deficiency is 9-15”
Weekly export sales: wheat 279,000 tons off 27% on average, corn back down to 236,000 off 21% and soybeans 319,000 down 37%