Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 11:28 update with Gary Wilhelmi 11/30/2012

Seed Consultants Market Watch 11:28 update with Gary Wilhelmi 11/30/2012


11:28 update
Quiet equity trade
Feb cattle fall off $1.32 to $139.77
Feb hogs continue to slip off $.45 at $86.67
Light volume selling in March corn down 7, Jan beans and March wheat both 14 lower
Volume at 10:15 was 58,000 in March corn, 34,000 Jan beans and 44,000 March wheat
Wheat has been the upside fundamental leader recently on deteriorating crop


10:34 update

Rope a dope equity trade as Washington mulls over fiscal issues
Dollar index again testing 80 at 80.11 off 9
More slippage in hogs extending minor reversal
Dec hogs are at a $4.28 premium to cash
Chinese corn production, up 8% to 208 MT, but cannot not keep up with expanding domestic demand
Month end evening of positions
Deliveries light in corn at 246 contracts but heavy in wheat at 2119
Rains forecast for dry S Brazil and Argentina remains wet


Fiscal proposals fired “willy-nilly” onto the air by the administration and congress
Consumer spending and income unchanged\German’s approve Greek debt deal
Chicago PMI this morning and 50.5 is expected versus 49.9 last month
Outside markets quiet
Gold up $3 at $1732
Crude oil $.12 higher at $88.19
Dollar up 6 at 80.27 (80-81 range)
Euro unemployment 1.7%
Dow starts 6 higher

Few beef at $202-204
Cash may not shape up until New Year pricing
LA and Long Beach port strikes impair beef exports
Show lists mixed
Boxed beef higher on choice
Pork cutout down $.52 with loin’s steady and hams up $.71
Slaughter is compared with last week’s holiday
Minor reversal in Dec. and Feb. hogs

Grain and soybeans
Negative chart action Thursday
Jan beans fail to hold above $14.50
Export sales were poor
Cumulative exports 42% in corn versus 49% and 75% beans versus 61%
Global soybean production seen up 12% with Brazil 25% higher
Argentine soybeans 42% planted versus 37%, corn 52% against 50% and wheat 26%
Today is first notice day on the December contracts
Slow shipments out of Brazil may take year’s to catch up with soaring production
Drought concerns need not be monitored day to day, watch the trend as measured by wheat crop ratings at 33% g-x, versus a 50% average
Queasy outside markets and tax uncertainty bother all trading venues