Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 1:51 update with Gary Wilhelmi 12/1/2012

Seed Consultants Market Watch 1:51 update with Gary Wilhelmi 12/1/2012


1:51 update

Dow off 38 and quiet
Dollar down 33 at 79.85 with support at 78
Watch Feb cattle support at $129 and 130 with the last at $130.17
Feb hogs scraping the high at $87.65
Choice beef up $.22 and listless
Weekly export inspections: 51 beans versus 19 needed to hit target, wheat 14 vs. 24 and corn 10 vs. 24

10:26 update

Weak factory index drops stocks
Tech top in hogs?
Talk of China buying 3-4 MT of beans in 1Q
Chinese crushers pick up pace despite negative margins as peak demand time approaches
Scattered rain in S Brazil and the back to dry
Corn borrowing strength from wheat and beans
Gulf corn steady to lower
Plains called dry in 10 day period

Watch Shanghai stocks at 1980, on year’s low, with 10% downside risk
Chinese index dropped to 1500 from 5500 in 2008
Steel growth 15% in 2010 is forecast at 4% in 2013
Artificially stimulated real estate boom could become a bust.
China, of course, has been the main buyer of our bond debt.
There are a lot of economic balls in the air and they are all filled with nitroglycerin.
Washington falls into name calling
Chinese PMI 505 up from 49.5 was first gain in a year
Japanese growth +.9%, or recessionary
Euro zone PMI 46.6
US expected at 51.7 today
Crude oil $89.59 up $1.12 with $90 resistance
Dollar down 28 at 79.89
DAX up 1%, FTSE .3% higher and Nikkei steady
Gold hovering at $1717
Dow opens up 55

Kansas cattle trade of $3 at $125
Boxed beef down $1 choice and $.70 select
Cattle weights up 20#
Reduced cow slaughter means herd rebuilding
LA and Long Beach remain on strike and they are the main beef ports
Pork cutout up $.59 with loins $2.44 higher and hams steady
Cattle slaughter 635,000 and hogs 2,999,000

Grain and soybeans
Positive night trade with corn up 9, beans 16 and wheat 11
Markets near mid range
Egypt buys 400,000 tons of wheat with 280,000 from the US and balance from Romania and France
Good Argentine soybean planting week up 11% to 58% done and corn up 4% to 63%
Heavy rains forecast to return this week
Two month shipping delays out of S. America
Low water with no sign of relief
Winter snows normally help replenish but it is too early to tell
Good snowfall start out west so watch Mississippi tributaries