Home Market Market Watch Seed Consultants Market Watch 10:41 update with Gary Wilhelmi 12/19/2012

Seed Consultants Market Watch 10:41 update with Gary Wilhelmi 12/19/2012

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10:41 update

Stocks drift looking for direction from Washington, but questions abound
Cash cattle call steady to higher
Margins negative in both red meats
Blizzard warnings in hog transportation areas
Egypt bought 110,000 tons of US wheat
Moisture comes to HRW area in the form of a wintry mix
Argentine plantings delays impact both corn and soybeans
Corn and beans up a shade and wheat firms on short covering based on improved exports price comparisons

 

Financial
Limited hopes for fiscal resolution firm Asian and European stocks and Dow called a little higher
Political infighting between the parties and within
Some congressional members resent the narrow nature of the negotiations
Housing starts slowed in November
Fitch rating service warns of US credit downgrade from AAA, if Washington fails
German business off
Japanese exports down 4.1% for fifth monthly decline
Crude up $.10 to $88.03
Dollar down again at 79.11, 26 lower with next support at 78, but this has not helped US Ag exports
Gold tumbles $17 to $1676
Dow opens 2 points higher

Livestock
A few cattle traded at $127.50 up north
Offers generally are at $129
Choice beef down $.93 and select up $.51
Holiday shortened week coming along with a major winter storm with snow in the central Corn Belt and a wintry mix in the plains
COF total expected at 94% or short supplies while margins are negative
Feb cattle near their high above $133 and Feb hogs grazing bottom close to $83 support
Pork cutout up $1.13
Features are typical for the holidays, with $.68 ham shanks, $1.98 whole hams and round roast at $2.98

Grain and soybeans
March corn sounding for a bottom at $7.15-10
March wheat rally on short covering off $8.00 support
Jan beans $14.68 up 2 cents (at home in their trading range)
Some see more spec liquidation in corm into years end
S American corn and beans in good shape (82 MT of soybeans in Brazil)
Egypt shopping for 2 cargoes of wheat and Taiwan 75,000 tons
US wheat is $22 /ton under our nearest competitor in wheat
Wintry mix of moisture in the plains and perhaps 6” of snow between the twin cities and Chicago
China cancellation of 300,000 tons of soybeans is not unusual and is often due to logistical adjustments, not a business strategy change
Dollar decline has not resulted in Ag trade, but watch Thursday’s sales report from a wide multi week view.



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