Rains move across the state with a frontal boundary Sunday. However, these rains do not look quite as impressive as they did earlier in the week. In fact, we likely will see only .25”-.75” rain totals over about 70% of the state, and most of this action is tapering off by midday. WE should be sunny by mid afternoon and dry to finish the day.
Dry weather continues then for Monday and most of Tuesday. High pressure will be in control and we feel this will start to build through the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, allowing for an upper-level ridge to start to form. The ridge may stall in its development at midweek. WE have a few scattered showers that try to cross the state overnight Tuesday night and early Wednesday, amounting to a few hundredths to no more than .3”. Coverage will end up being around 70% of the state. Thursday is a tough call at this point. WE like a drier scenario but are troubled by moisture lingering over about half the state. Therefore, we will allow for some scattered showers through Thursday and limited sunshine. Rain totals will be .1”-.6” with coverage at 60% or less.
For Friday and Saturday, we have sunshine trying to re-assert itself, but we can’t rule out some isolated showers. This likely comes as a consequence of warming temps and higher humidity, triggering instability over the state. Action will not be in many places, the way we see it right now, but we can’t completely rule out these showers either. We will say that the northern half of the state has better chances and we can see 2-day rain totals of .25” to 1”, with the largest rain totals only possible with thunderstorms. If an upper-level ridge does a better job of building through the week, and a tropical system does develop in the Gulf, making landfall sometime from midweek on (as we suspect), we think this forecast can get drier as the week wears on. The above map shows one potential precipitation solution for the period from Sunday to Saturday. We think these totals may be slightly overdone in central IN.
Dry next Sunday through Tuesday morning. We do have a cool front working in for the afternoon of the 27th (Tuesday) and crossing the state through the morning of the 28th (Wednesday). This front looks to trigger .25”-1” drops of rain with coverage at 70%. It may be followed up by another system on the 30th with .25”-.75” potential. Both of these systems are shown to be most aggressive on the GFS model, which has had a hard time with the extended period in recent weeks. Therefore, we look to see how the 10 day period ends and how strong of ridge can form over the plains before really getting too excited about moisture in the extended window. We should be dry for July 1 and 2.
Weeks 3 & 4:
In week three, we look for temps to be above normal without hesitation. WE likely will average 2-5 degrees above normal for the entire week three period. WE also look for normal to below normal precipitation. This period will also feature a weak front around July 3 with rain totals of a half inch or less, then be ridging in the upper levels of the atmosphere for the 4th through the 11th. In week 4, we keep our temps above normal again, similar to week 3. However, precipitation will be near normal. WE have a system projected to move in around the 12th that can have half to 1.5” rains with it, and then a secondary, more minor front for the 15th. This could lead to an extended period of scattered light shower action getting trapped over the state through the 18th. However, a lingering scattered shower pattern after ridging with above normal temps is not an exceptionally high confidence forecast…so we are more interested in seeing how the next few weeks play out, rather than pinpointing action 4 weeks from now.
Rains this past week helped mitigate some of the dryness over the corn belt, but still, there is plenty of dry out there. Even in Indiana, there were areas that got missed by the best rains, getting only a tenth or two, while 10 miles away rain totals were 1-2 inches. Here is the latest drought monitor from this past week.