A cooler that arrived to start the weekend holds through Sunday. We should see good sunshine with just a small concern about a few scattered to isolated showers Sunday afternoon. The moisture that triggers those has a better likelihood of just producing clouds, though, and coverage will be under 20% of the state. Temps will be below normal, but likely not as cool as Saturday. That is mostly due to better sky conditions Sunday (more sunshine).
Dry weather continues for the start of next week. In general, we have completely dry weather Monday through Wednesday over the northern half of the state. Monday and Wednesday will be dry in the south, but we have a few scattered showers moving into southern Indiana on Tuesday. These showers will produce a few hundredths to .3” of rain with 50% coverage of areas from I-70 southward. Temps will be warming through the first half of next week.
The big changes in our forecast this morning come for the later part of next week. Moderate to heavy rains develop with a front arriving Thursday. Rains and strong storms produce totals of .5”-2” with 90T coverage Thursday from I-70 northward, and up to half an inch south of I-70 with 505 coverage. Then we follow up with another batch of showers and thunderstorms for Friday, that produce .5”-1.5” rain totals and 60% coverage. The least coverage for next Friday may end up being over the northeast quadrant of the state. Rain and thunderstorm action redevelops then for later Saturday afternoon and continues through Sunday bringing another .5”-1.5” of rain and 75% coverage. The moisture is rather impressive and the map above shows totals for next week from Tuesday morning through the weekend.
The extended period has lingering showers until next Monday (3rd) but a dry July 4th holiday. In fact, we should be dry for the 4th through the 6th statewide, with temps above normal. Then the remainder of the extended window gets more active again, with scattered showers and heat based thunderstorms developing for the 7th and 8th. However, there is not a good, well-defined front arriving in there…and those will be interesting to watch for further development or degradation.
Weeks 3 & 4:
In week three (July 10-16), Temps are likely to be above normal, and it should be somewhat wet, with precipitation above normal as well. WE start the period with a weak front for the afternoon of the 10th on the 11th, but then turn breezy, dry and warm for the 12th and 13th. A strong cold front arrives and sweeps through for the 14th and 15th with moderate to heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms. Half to 1-inch rains or more would not be out of the question. In week 4 (July 17th-23rd), temps should be near to above normal, and precipitation still above normal. We have a couple of fronts looking to move through in that window – neither is as strong as the event for the 14th-15th. One front hits the 18th, the other around the 22nd. Rains under half an inch are likely with both.