Showers and thunderstorms continue to be an issue for this weekend, mostly through Sunday midday. The best chance of thunderstorms will have happened Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, and we still see a decent chance of strong to severe weather with this system’s passage. Rain tapers off Sunday, and we likely will be done with precipitation by midday. All told, we look for .5”- 1.5” of rain for the Saturday-early Sunday period with coverage at 90% of the state. This will be a good, soaking rain in many areas. Clouds can give way to late day sun on Sunday.
Dry and sunny Monday, but that will not be a period that can really be utilized. Clouds start to increase again Tuesday and by mid-afternoon Tuesday we can see scattered showers developing. Precipitation totals on Tuesday will be minor, only a few hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch, but that does mean that we likely see very little additional drying Tuesday. Heavy rains are in for Wednesday with thunderstorms, some strong, and the rains will linger through the first part of Thursday. Wednesday-Thursday action yields .5”-2” of rain over 100% of the state. That will be a very solid rain event that everyone gets. Clouds hold firm for the rest of Thursday even after the rains are done.
We finish the week Friday with sunshine, but clouds start to build back in next Saturday as we start the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Showers develop Saturday afternoon and continue into early Sunday. This batch of rain does not look as impressive this morning as it did 2 days ago…so we may escape with only .25”-.5” of rain for the late Saturday-Sunday period. Coverage will be around 75% of the state. The map above shows rain totals through this coming Sunday morning.
We finish the holiday weekend dry for Monday the 29th, with strong high pressure building in.
That high pressure dome moves off to the east quickly by early Tuesday. That paves the way for our next front to arrive later Tuesday afternoon and bring rains through Wednesday the 31st. We like precipitation totals of .5”-1” with coverage at 80%. After two days of dry weather for the 1st and 2nd, we have another front right toward the finish of the extended period that has potential to bring .5”-1.5” over the entire state. Now…that far out, track could easily alter…but you get the idea: no more week long dry stretches are in the works as we finish May and move into June.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Here, the pattern may try and settle down a bit. Overall, we are seeing temps in the week 3 period below normal, with precipitation normal to slightly above. In terms of actually systems, we see a cold frontal boundary passage possible around the 6th-7th with rains of .25”-.5”, coverage likely 70%. A strong high pressure dome does try and control the state for the rest of the period. In week 4, we have temps normal to slightly below normal, and precipitation normal to slightly above normal. A front can move through around the 13th, and a second front may materialize closer to the end of the week 4 period. Rain totals do not look overly large.
Below is the soil temperature map from this past week. Soil temps rebounded to the 62-68 degree range at the 4” depth. We do not see any serious cold threats ahead, even though we likely do not increase these soil temps as fast in the weeks to come due to additional rain and temps that are back closer to normal rather than way above normal.