High pressure will move into the state Sunday, and will hold through Monday. That should bring sunshine and eventually some slightly warmer air in to the region. WE should see good evaporation rates those days with a max of .25” of moisture leaving per day through evaporation.
Clouds are back for next Tuesday with rain likely to follow quickly Tuesday afternoon. The showers run through Tuesday night and through the first part of Wednesday. We look for rain totals to be from .25”-.75” with coverage at 60% of the state. There will be some areas that don’t get new rains, but the clouds and overall saturated atmosphere likely slows drying for that Tuesday-Wednesday period, even in areas that do not see rains. These rains will come with a front that is strong enough that some gusty winds will ensue…but let’s face it…we really are not in a position to do much spraying anyway.
The rest of the week next week features a lot of clouds. There is not a lot of new precipitation in the forecast from Wednesday night through Saturday, but the atmospheric set up does not yield super-fast drying either. Scattered spits and sprinkles are likely in the Friday night time frame over about 30% of the state, and then next Saturday night into Sunday, we see scattered showers that bring a few hundredths up to .3” of rain potential over 50% of the state.
The pattern dries out a bit from later next Sunday (14th) through the first half of Tuesday (16th). This may be our longest consecutive dry period for the next 2 weeks at 2.5 days. Sunshine should work through in that period with high pressure sweeping across the state. Following that, we shift back into a cloudy and damp pattern with scattered showers likely from the late afternoon and evening of the 16th right on through the 19th. Combined rain totals can be half to 1.5” inches over the 3.5 day period, with coverage at 80% of the state. That system looks strong enough to have some good wind with it.
As we stated earlier, in our opinion, while this forecast clearly has less precipitation in it compared to what we saw over the past week, it still does not have enough consecutive dry days and enough dry periods to amply dry things out enough to move forward with significant planting over most of the state. But, things do look better farther out, and that leads us to be optimistic when we estimate that significant planting progress here will have to wait until after May 20. See below
Weeks 3 & 4:
Some good news in the far extended period to finish the month and move toward early June. WE do start to dry out in week 3 a little more, as we see precipitation moving to below normal levels. As we move through the Memorial Day weekend, an upper level ridge remains in play over the state. This should promote above normal temps to start week 3, and even warmer temps for week for. If we were to break down precipitation on a weekly basis, we think that we likely will see under half an inch each week during week 3 and week 4, and week three likely will be the one most likely to string together a larger run of consecutive dry days. What we are getting at here, is that once we get past the 20th, we may see this weather pattern start to behave a little more, and if we see some areas get lucky and end up outside of the coverage areas of those systems next week that are only at 60%…then we may even be able to see faster improvement. As down as we are about the current situation, there is hope for a turnaround father out. We’ll just have to see if those thoughts can hold.
Below are soil temperature maps. The top is from this past Thursday. The bottom is the one we showed you last week at this time. Notice the dip in soil temps. Now, temps are still above the key threshold for all areas. But, with a wet, saturated soil profile, lack of sun, and overnight lows in the 40s…we are not seeing many areas very far above 50 degrees. This has promoted a seed bed that is rather inhospitable for seed at this point, and very uneven germination. That does not even take into account soils that are underwater. With the coming week looking like it does, we expect this map not to change much over the next 7 days. Technically warm enough to plant, but not really good enough to get good seed performance. And, the excess water just adds insult to injury.