The market will be keeping one eye on the weather and the other on the supply and demand report that will be released by the USDA Friday. Tom Fritz with EFG in Chicago says the soybean carryout numbers will be a key.
“You look at projected carry outs on soybeans, they’re much tighter than corn, whereas businesses being dialed in for our new crop beans, we cannot afford to lose any bushels. So, I think that is the biggest propelling issue in the soybean market.”
Fritz says there are some in the trade who feel the situation in soybeans may be even tighter than current USDA numbers indicate.
“I’ve got some folks trying to allude to the idea that old crop bean carry-out might be a hundred million bushels too high right now. Now that would mean we would have to see one tremendous rush of demand towards the end of the marketing season, but I am also hearing indications that Brazil is sold out of beans right now. So, I think that in turn is one reason why we have seen the last couple of days these USDA announcements. I am hearing the new crop announcements are where we transition from old crop to new crop.”
As for market expectation for today’s report, “If we get the numbers that the traders expecting I think it’s going to viewed as ho hum, we already knew that. What’s the weather forecast?”