U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as lower expected exports outweigh an increase in projected domestic usage. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower based on the sluggish pace of sales and shipments to date and prospects for more competition from Brazil. Corn use for ethanol production is unchanged, but corn use for sweeteners and starch is raised 20 million bushels, boosting projected food, seed, and industrial use. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel. Reported monthly prices received by farmers to date continue to reflect forward sales made at prices below prevailing cash market bids.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 125 million bushels, down 10 million from last month due to increased crush. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.615 billion reflecting both larger soybean meal exports and domestic use. Strong U.S. soybean meal exports during the first half of the marketing year are partly offsetting declining shipments from Argentina where crushing has slowed due to limited soybean supplies. Domestic soybean meal use is raised in line with projected gains in meat production. Soybean oil production is raised on higher soybean crush and a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil exports are projected at 2.3 billion pounds, up 150 million from last month as sales continue stronger than expected. Soybean oil used for methyl ester is unchanged this month despite relatively low use during the first quarter of the marketing year. Production and use are expected to expand in coming months due to the higher mandate for 2013. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 1.665 billion pounds, up 125 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.05 per bushel, up 5 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $430 to $460 per short ton, unchanged from last month. The soybean oil price projection is also unchanged at 49 to 53 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.9 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month. Global soybean production is raised fractionally to 269.5 million tons as improved production prospects in Brazil offset deteriorating conditions in Argentina.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower this month with higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels higher as weaker cash prices relative to corn support opportunities for increased wheat use in livestock and poultry rations. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels each for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, and raised 5 million bushels for White wheat. Projected all-wheat exports are unchanged, but HRW and Hard Red Spring wheat are lowered 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively. Offsetting these reductions are projected increases in SRW and White wheat exports of 25 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively. By-class export changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected seasonaverage farm price for wheat is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the range to $7.70 to $8.10 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are nearly unchanged with a small increase in beginning stocks more than offsetting a small decrease in production. Global wheat output is projected 0.7 million tons lower. Production is lowered for Kazakhstan and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine, South Africa, and Belarus.