OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 113.1 million tons, up 5.0 million tons with higher soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at a record 3,800 million bushels, up 165 million due to increased harvested area.
Harvested area, forecast at 84.1 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 3.6 million above the June forecast. The soybean yield is projected at 45.2 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Soybean supplies are 180 million bushels above last month’s forecast due to higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush is projected at 1,755 million bushels, up 40 million reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance in line with adjustments for 2013/14 and higher
U.S. soybean meal exports that offset lower projected exports for India. Soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 50 million bushels to 1,675 million reflecting record U.S. supplies and lower prices. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 415 million bushels, up 90 million. If realized, projected stocks would be the highest since 2006/07.
Prices for soybeans and products for 2014/15 are all reduced. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9.50 to $11.50 per bushel, down 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $350 to $390 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price range is projected at 36 to 40 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 521.9 million tons, up 5.8 million from last month with soybeans and rapeseed accounting for most of the change. Global soybean production is projected at 304.8 million tons, up 4.8 million mostly due to higher production in the United States. Higher soybean production is also projected for Russia and Ukraine, both reflecting higher harvested area.
Lower soybean production for India resulting from reduced harvested area partly offsets these gains. Harvested area is reduced based on planting delays resulting from the slow development of the monsoon in the main soybean producing states. Rapeseed production is raised for Canada based on higher planted area reported by Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production is also raised for Australia on higher area and yield. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.7 million tons, up 3.6 million mostly reflecting a sharp increase in U.S. soybean stocks.
U.S. soybean crush for 2013/14 is raised 25 million bushels to 1,725 million on both increased soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal use. Soybean exports for 2013/14 are projected at 1,620 million bushels, up 20 million reflecting record shipments through early July. Seed use is raised and residual is reduced based on indications from the June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, respectively. Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 140 million bushels, up 15 million.