On Thursday, the USDA will give us our best guess on how much corn and soybeans were planted this year which will lead to estimates on yield and production for the 2016 crops. Historically, the reports have resulted in sharp market moves both up and down. The numbers that will indicate both what the supply and demand will be for the rest of year will set the tone for price trends through harvest. But going into this year’s reports, there are vastly differing ideas on what the actual acreage number will be.
While the planted acreage numbers will be the most closely watched, they will not be the only numbers moving the market. Mike Silver with Kokomo Grain says several factors are all coming together to make Thursday a pivotal day in the markets, “Not only do we get acreage numbers, the quarterly stocks number, but it is the end of the month, the end of the quarter, and the day before a long holiday weekend.”
Given the current state of the market, Silver says there is more downside risk than upside potential. But Bob Utterback sees the report as likely to be friendly to the market, “I think there will be a cut in the corn acreage, likely around 1 million acres.”
Likewise, Arlan Suderman sees a 1 million acre crop in planted corn, but is expecting 2 million acres to be added to soybean acres. Suderman feels the stocks numbers could overshadow the acreage numbers, “I think that is where the real surprise could be.” He told HAT the USDA has no historical trend when it comes to the June stocks reports, “So often they catch the market leaning the wrong way.”
There will be a free webinar on Thursday afternoon that will analyze the USDA numbers. You can get more information and register at www.intlfcstone.com.