USDA’s Crop Production report released Tuesday shows a one-percent decline in projected winter wheat production. The forecast is now for 1.68-billion bushels which is 13-percent above 2011. The U.S. yield is forecast at 47.3-bushels per acre. That’s 1.1-bushels more than last year – but down three-tenths from last month. Expected area for harvest is unchanged from May at 35.6-million acres.
Hard Red Winter wheat is down one-percent from last month at 1.02-billion bushels. White Winter is also down one-percent at 231-million bushels. Fourteen-point-one million of those bushels are Hard White. The remaining 217-million bushels are Soft White. USDA has slightly increased Soft Red Winter production to 428-million bushels.
The all orange forecast is 8.96-million tons – an increase of one-percent from the May forecast and the 2010-11 final utilization. Florida’s all orange forecast is 6.58-million tons – also a one-percent increase from May.
WASDE at a Glance
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released Tuesday. It is noted that because planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and is several months away in the Southern Hemisphere the projections are highly tentative.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 51 million bushels with reduced carryin and lower forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are lowered 40 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel increase in food use and a 30-million-bushel increase in exports for 2011/12. Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year.
U.S. all wheat production for 2012/13 is projected at 2,234 million bushels, down 11 million. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 41 million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $5.60 to $6.80 per bushel. This remains well below the record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are virtually unchanged as adjustments to 2011/12 balance sheets are largely offsetting and projected 2012/13 production and use are unchanged on the month. Projected 2012/13 season average price ranges for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged.
Adjustments to corn usage for 2011/12 reflect the latest ethanol production and trade data. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2011/12 is projected 50 million bushels higher. The higher corn use projection assumes slightly lower ethanol production during the June-August quarter as compared with the same period last year. Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower as shipments and sales continue to fall off of the pace needed to reach last month’s projection. Tight domestic supplies and increased competition, especially from Brazil, are also expected to reduce U.S. export prospects during the summer months. Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are unchanged, as is the 2011/12 season average farm price which remains at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel.
Sorghum exports for 2011/12 are projected 10 million bushels lower, but offset by a 10-million-bushel increase in expected feed and residual use. Projected barley imports are raised 4 million bushels and exports are lowered 3 million bushels boosting ending stocks 7 million bushels. Oats ending stocks are projected 10 million bushels lower with projected imports lowered 15 million bushels and feed and residual use reduced 5 million bushels. Projected 2011/12 farm prices for all three feed grains are unchanged.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 4.8 million tons higher with increases in corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are increased 1.6 million tons mostly reflecting higher 2011/12 production for Brazil and China. Brazil corn production is raised 2 million bushels for 2011/12 to a record 69 million tons. China’s 2011/12 corn production is raised 1.0 million tons in line with recent revisions to official government estimates.
Global 2012/13 coarse grain trade is projected higher this month on increased imports and exports of corn. Global corn consumption is increased 2.4 million tons. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.4 million tons higher. Of the increase, 2.0 million tons are for China and 1.0 million tons are for Brazil.
RICE: A reduced 2011/12 U.S. rice ending stocks forecast results in a tighter supply outlook for 2012/13. Beginning stocks for 2012/13 are reduced 4.5 million cwt to 29.5 million—down 39 percent from the previous year, and the lowest beginning stocks since 2004/05. Production and imports for 2012/13 are unchanged at 183.0 million cwt and 22.0 million, respectively. On the 2012/13 use side, domestic and residual use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 122.0 million because of an expected decline in rice used in the brewing of beer—a trend observed in recent years. U.S. 2012/13 ending stocks are projected at 25.5 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month.
Smaller projected 2011/12 U.S. imports along with larger exports reduce 2011/12 ending stocks by 4.5 million cwt. U.S. rice imports for 2011/12 are projected at 20.0 million cwt, down 0.5 million from a month ago based on U.S. Bureau of the Census data through March. Rice exports for 2011/12 are raised 4.0 million cwt to 101.0 million because of a significant pickup in sales and shipments in April and early May, and an increase in food-aid. The 2012/13 long-grain U.S. season average farm price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, combined medium- and short-grain rice price is $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt, and the all rice price is $15.30 to $16.30 per cwt. The midpoint of the 2011/12 all rice, long-grain, and combined medium- and short-grain prices are unchanged from a month ago, however, the price range is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range for each.
Global 2012/13 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at a record 466.5 million tons, up less than 100,000 tons from last month. Global 2012/13 exports are raised nearly 1.0 million tons mainly due to an increase for India. India’s 2011/12 exports are raised to a record 8.0 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, due primarily to a reduction for India.
OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012/13 include lower beginning and ending stocks and reduced use. Lower beginning stocks reflect increased export and crush projections for 2011/12. Soybean exports for 2011/12 are raised 20 million bushels to 1.335 billion bushels reflecting increased global import demand, led mainly by higher projected imports for China. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels mostly due to stronger domestic soybean meal use. Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 35 million. With reduced supplies for 2012/13, soybean exports are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down 20 million. Soybean crush is also projected lower due to reduced domestic soybean meal use. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.
The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $335 to $365 per ton and 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 470.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, mainly due to lower soybean and cottonseed production.