QUICK TAKE: Wednesday USDA trimmed domestic corn ending stocks to just below 2 billion bushels and soybean stocks to 410 million bushels. USDA increased world wheat ending stocks while traders had expected a cut. USDA boosted Canadian and Kazakhstan production, leading to a 2 million metric ton increase in global ending stocks.
CORN: USDA left the corn balance sheet mostly unchanged except for the food, seed and industrial use category. Corn use for sweeteners is expected to increase 10 million bushels in the 2014/15 marketing year, leading to a corresponding 10 million bushel decline in ending stocks. Global corn ending stocks increased to 192.2 million metric tons.
SOYBEANS: USDA increased its expectation for soybean exports by 40 million bushels, reflecting the record export pace and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of South America’s harvest. The increased sales dropped ending stocks to 410 million bushels.Globally, ending stocks declined slightly from last month to 89.9 million metric tons.
WHEAT: USDA put domestic ending stocks at 654 million bushels, up 10 million from last month’s report due to a corresponding increase of durum wheat imports from Canada. USDA expects hard red winter wheat exports declining 15 million bushels but that will be offset by 5 million increase in exports of spring wheat, white wheat and durum wheat. Globally, ending stocks increased as USDA incorporated Canadian government data that showed a 1.8 million metric ton increase in production to 29.3.
OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean crush was unchanged. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change on increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seed.
SUGAR: U.S. 2014/15 total sugar supply is increased 189,844 short tons, raw value \from last month to 13.919 million. Based on sugarcane processors’ forecasts, Florida sugar production is increased by 144,869 STRV due to increased sugarcane yield and area, and Texas cane sugar production is increased by 2,865 STRV due to increased yield. Imports are increased by 42.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is lowered from last month, as lower beef production in the fourth quarter more than offsets increased pork production. Beef production is reduced as slaughter is expected lower. A small revision is made to third-quarter broiler slaughter but the forecasts for fourth quarter broiler and turkey production are unchanged. The milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month, but is lowered for 2015 as growth in milk per cow is expected to be more moderate.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates for 2014/15 include lower production and ending stocks compared to last month. Production is reduced 474,000 bales, due mainly to a lower crop estimate for Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.6 million bales. Global cotton ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised again this month, as a lower consumption forecast is partially offset by lower production.