Extreme weather challenges, which started months ago, have caused a record-slow planting pace and huge questions about crop quality. As of June 23, USDA reports 96% of the nation’s corn and 85% of the nation’s soybeans are planted.
While planting is finally nearing the finish line, both the corn and soybean crops are behind in development. Just 89% of the corn and 71% of the country’s soybeans were emerged as of June 23. The historical averages for emergence in late June are 99% for corn and 91% for soybeans.
On Friday, USDA will release the annual Acreage report. Historically, this report is a strong indicator of final planted acres. But, that’s not likely the case this year, says Joe Vaclavik, founder and president of Standard Grain. “These surveys for acreage were taken during first two weeks of June, and I think only 67% of corn acres planted as of June 2,” he says. “So, I don’t know how to report can possible be accurate in regards to acreage.”
Mike Silver, with Kokomo Grain, told HAT, “It is anybody’s guess what those numbers are going to look like.” He says it is likely there will be an increase in ending stocks numbers The average trade guess for the corn ending stocks is number is 5.332 BB and the soybean number is 1.861bb. Silver added there is likely to be a good deal of skepticism about the planted acreage numbers.
Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, agrees. “USDA collected data until June 17, but a lot of that data was in before June 17,” he says. “I just have a feeling that [Friday’s report] is going to include ‘intentions’ to stick with corn. The market was telling producers to try to stick with corn. Therefore, if they were going to fill it out honestly, weren’t they going to say, ‘I’m still going to try to plant corn.’”
In the March Prospective Plantings report, USDA forecast 92.8 million acres of corn and 84.6 million acres of soybeans. Earlier this month in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA took corn acres down to 89.8 million and barely lowered soybean acres. Ahead of the report, Paul Georgy, president and CEO of Allendale, says analysts expect the acres to be adjusted to 86.66 million acres of corn and 84.35 million acres of soybeans.
Farmers should be prepared for some volatility on Friday, Vaclavik says, “The acreage numbers are not likely to be accurate, and tomorrow’s report is just the start of discovering what the real acres are.” Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois agricultural economist, agrees tomorrow’s report may provide a weak indication of corn and soybean acreage this year. (Read his recent farmdoc Daily articles: Soybean Stocks and Acreage and Corn Acreage and Stocks.) “Uncertainty about corn acreage looks to remain in place through the summer,” he says. “The June acreage estimate may indicate the scale of acreage shifts into soybeans but prevented plant acres may not be known until later in the year.”
Source: Ag Web and HAT