On Friday, the USDA will issue an update on major crop production totals as well as estimated demand for these crops from both the domestic and export markets. This will be the first time since September that the market will have such an update, since the government shutdown in October scuttled the October reports and resulted in loss of some key data by NASS. As a result, futures trades are not quite certain what they are going to be dealt on Friday. December Corn futures put in a new low on Wednesday when it hit $4.20, indicating that the market is expecting a bearish report. Tom Fritz, with EFG in Chicago, told HAT the market is comfortable we will have enough corn to meet demand, “The market is very complacent about our supply of grain, feeling we will have enough no matter what kind of demand figure the USDA throws at us.”
It is a different situation for soybeans. The market is expecting to see the USDA report good soybean export demand. “My personal opinion is that current market estimates are overstated on what the soybean carryover number will be,” said Fritz. He said the USDA only has to find 60 million bushels of new demand to meet current supply estimates, “Given that we are already at 79% of previous export sales, it would not surprise me if the soybean carry out is less than the trade is looking for.” The report will be released Friday at noon EST. Rely on Hoosier Ag Today for expert analysis of the Friday report.
The November Crop Production report will include: indicated area harvested; yield and production forecasts as of November 1 for corn for grain, cotton, rice, sorghum for grain, soybeans for beans, peanuts for nuts, sugarbeets and sugarcane for sugar. Included in the report is objective survey data for selected states which include corn plant population, number of ears, row width distribution, and percent of samples processed in the lab; as well as soybean row width distribution, number of pods with beans per 18 square feet and percent of samples processed in the lab.