U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as an increase in ending year corn stocks more than offset reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bushels reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half (September-February) of the marketing year. The reduction in corn feed and residual use is partly offset by a combined 20-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use for the other feed grains based on the March 1 stocks. Adding to 2012/13 feed grain supplies this month are increases of 3 million bushels and 2 million bushels, respectively, in projected barley and sorghum imports.
Domestic corn use for 2012/13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance. Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices, and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year (March-August). Corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 125 million bushels.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is increased 20 million bushels this month to 1.635 billion. The increase reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year. Increased U.S. soybean meal exports partly offset reduced meal exports for Brazil and Argentina as crush in those countries declines more quickly than expected on reduced supplies resulting from last year’s drought. Soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, food use, and ending stocks. Increased food use partly offsets reduced imports and consumption of canola oil.