U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected lower with reduced carryin and production this month. Corn beginning stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 193 million bushels based on the September 1 stocks estimate. Sorghum beginning stocks are lowered 4 million bushels also on the September 1 stocks. Forecast corn production for 2012/13 is lowered 21 million bushels with higher area more than offset by lower yields. The U.S. corn yield is forecast at 122.0 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushels from the previous month. Lower yields in Illinois are only partly offset by increases for Minnesota and North Dakota. Forecast sorghum production is raised 6 million bushels with higher yields for Texas and Arkansas. For 2012/13, corn supplies are projected 214 million bushels lower and sorghum supplies are projected 2 million bushels higher. Barley supplies are down 6 million bushels with a small production decline from the Small Grains report and a 5-million-bushel reduction in projected imports with a smaller crop in Canada. Oats supplies are down with a 3-million-bushel reduction in output, also from the Small Grains report.
U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is lowered with a 100-million-bushel reduction in projected exports. Corn exports are lowered based on the slow pace of sales to date and strong competition from Brazil. Corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 114 million bushels lower at 619 million.
Projected ending stocks are raised slightly for sorghum, but lowered for oats. Barley ending stocks are projected 19 million bushels higher reflecting a 25-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use based on indications from the September 1 stocks. The season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10 cents on both ends of the range to $7.10 to $8.50 per bushel based on early season cash and futures prices and prices available for forward delivery through early 2013.
U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 88.2 million tons, up 6.2 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 2.860 billion bushels, up 226 million based on higher harvested area and yield. Harvested area is raised 1.1 million acres to 75.7 million. The soybean yield is projected at 37.8 bushels per acre, up 2.5. Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are projected 10 percent above last month on both increased production and beginning stocks. Peanut and cottonseed production are also projected higher this month.
U.S. soybean exports for 2012/13 are raised 210 million bushels to 1.265 billion reflecting increased supplies, lower prices, and the record pace of export sales through early October. Soybean crush is raised 40 million bushels to 1.540 billion mostly due to increased soybean meal exports and increased soybean supplies. Soybean crush is also supported by an increase in domestic disappearance of soybean oil which reflects the impact of the increase of the biodiesel mandate for 2013 recently announced by the Environmental Protection Agency. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $14.25 to $16.25 per bushel, down $0.75 on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $470 to $500 per short ton, down $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.
Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 44 million bushels as higher feed and residual disappearance more than offsets a reduction in projected exports. Production for 2012/13 is raised 1 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains report. Feed and residual use is projected 95 million bushels higher reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels on the pace of shipments and sales to date and stronger expected competition. Export projections are lowered for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is narrowed 15 cents on both ends to $7.65 to $8.55 per bushel. Small revisions to 2011/12 feed and residual disappearance and seed use reflect recent updates to stocks and acreage.
Source: WASDE (click for full report)