The quick clipper system will be exiting the region to the east today, leaving 2-6” in its wake. Now focus turns to another colder air punch that comes for tomorrow and tomorrow night. Temps today will be limited to the teens and 20s for highs, and lows will go below zero. The coldest part of the air mass will be in for tomorrow when parts of extreme northern Indiana may struggle to get much past 5 for high temperatures. The rest of the state will be in the single digits to low teens. We look for lows well below zero with wind chills adding to the cold feel. Temps will be slow to moderate as we finish the week, but as we mentioned yesterday, they will fall short of returning completely to normal. Models yesterday pushed the next little system back into early next week, with light precipitation sneaking across the OH River into Monday midday and afternoon. The front still hooks up to much better moisture and organized low pressure farther south in the lower delta, and that is where the best moisture will be. Right now, we look for no more than 2 tenths of moisture to start the week, mostly in the extreme southern part of the state.
The rest of next week is remains cold and mostly dry, although not quite as cold as this week. We do not see temperatures returning to near normal levels until at least the third week of January. Models continue to show a strong front around the 19th-20th that should bring rain to start followed by a change over to snow. Models suggest half to 1.5” rains over a large part of IN with a snowy ending that may yield accumulations as well. This is well out in the forecast window, and we look for changes…but the system is still intact.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Three rain events in Argentina from now through the 21st. These rain events total 2-4 inches combined and will have coverage at 90% of the key ag areas. The first of the events hit today through early Thursday, the next from late this weekend into early next week, and then the third for the 18th-20th. Temps remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, but are not problematic
Brazil corn areas in southern Brazil look to get slightly better rain chances in the next two weeks. However, those rains will have trouble making it north of Parana. We see 1-2 inch rains in Rio Grande do Sul through Santa Catarina and Parana over the next two weeks combined. 2 fronts will lead that charge. Farther north, corn areas in Bahia will stay drier with only scattered moisture. Another inch or more is possible late in the period from the 15th-20th over most corn areas. Temps will be normal to above normal.
No change in South African corn production areas. Scattered showers over the next two weeks will produce half to 1 inch combined totals, with the best rain chances still sitting in the period from the 14th-15th.
Temps remain below normal over most of the Corn Belt for the rest of the week, although we should see some slightly moderation in temps toward the end of the week. Highs still look brutally cold for tomorrow. High temperatures in WI, MN, northern IL, northern IA and parts of MI will not get above 0 on tomorrow, and overnight lows will from 15-25 below or colder in those same areas. Next week is mostly dry, with the only system affecting southern MO and the OH valley early on. A strong front can bring moderate to heavy rains and also heavy snows to the region for the 18th-20th.
Heat stress in Brazil soy areas will be top of mind through the next 10 days. Temps look to top out in the mid 90s to low triple digits from eastern Goias east and northward through southwest Bahia and western Minas Gerais. These are not the biggest soy producing areas, but they do have decent production, and will be solidly in the flowering and pod set stage in this time frame. Any scattered moisture that falls (and there will be some, to the tune of up to half an inch through the next week or so) will help mitigate the heat some. The next significant rains to move into Brazil’s soybean belt will hit around the 15th-20th. Models continue to show half to 3 inch rains or better with coverage at 70% in that window. Farther west, we continue to see limited to scattered showers and storms from now through the 15th. Moisture totals for the 10 day period will be from .25”-.75”, but coverage will be 50% or less. Areas in far western Matto Grosso where harvest is ramping up will be looking for dry windows to plant corn…so this forecast may not be all bad. But, it is something the markets are watching closely. We continue to look for to stay in an 86-93 degree range through the period over most areas in the central and western part of the soy belt.
Big up and down swings in the temps are expected this week in the western HRW areas. Cold air holds farther east. This will reduce snow cover over about 40% of the HRW crop and open it up to bigger effects of the 20-30 degree swings in temps.
The next big precipitation event is on the way for the 17th-18th…with up to 1.5” of rain in the eastern HRW belt and some potential for heavier snows in the western half. However the system is just developing as it enters the plains…so coverage of moisture for wheat may be down around 60%.
SRW areas remain will be cold this week, just like everybody else. The clipper system that moved through last night should have put a decent snow blanket on a significant part of SRW acres. Still, there will be a small amount of concern about winter kill as we get our coldest temperatures in the next 24-36 hours in SRW country.
FSU/Black Sea wheat areas still have a chance of see some scattered rain and snow showers from tonight through early Thursday. Our massive arctic outbreak remains on track to hit around the 12th-15th and should produce moderate to good snows along the leading edge of the cold air. . Normal temps and precipitation then expected through the 21st.