Precipitation came in a bit early starting in the southern part of the state early to mid afternoon yesterday. Action will be leaving to the east this morning, leaving a mess in its wake. As we feared, temps were very close to a critical line for rain vs. snow, and we saw more ice than we really would like to see. But, farther north, 1-3 of wet snow fell, and we did trend toward all rain the closer to the OH River we got. Icing was a problem mostly in the central part o the state. Liquid equivalents were in the .2-.3” range. While we should be dry the rest of the week with regard to new precipitation, cold air will stay longer. The European model hints at us not making it back above freezing until Friday. While the daytime highs are a bit too low on that model in our opinion, we believe the timing of the mild push is correct, holding until later in the week.
The milder air will stay in play for at least a week. Don’t be deceived…temps really will only be moving back to within a few degrees either side of normal. But, it will feel like so much more than that given the brutal cold experienced for nearly 2 weeks prior. The next chance of precipitation comes in and around the 19th. The system that brings initially a couple tenths of rain will be followed by a stronger low and cold air that can bring more moderate rains and a change over to snow for the 21st into the 22nd. From the second moisture push there, we look for half to three quarters of an inch liquid equivalent, and potentially a few inches of snow. The cold pattern will lead to a return to clipper systems late in the period the first of which should move in around the 26th into the 27th. Temps should be back below normal, but perhaps not as impressive as what we have worked through in the past week or so.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
After a couple of days of drier air over Argentina corn areas, we will see a big uptick in precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain totals will be in the 1-3” range this week. We will follow that up with another front for the 19th-21st, and one the 26th-27th. Those are a little less intense, but can produce half to 1 inch rains with coverage at 80%.
A result from that kind of pattern will be temps that are a bit lower than what we saw through the weekend, and temps that are just a bit better for corn production. WE may see a little concern about southern Cordoba and LaPampa hold in the marketplace until the second system shows early next week…but that concern will be for the most part unneeded.
Southern Brazil corn areas should expect each of those Argentine fronts to make it into Rio Grande do Sul and then up through Parana to the north, and Matto Grosso do Sul to the west. As an aside…Matto Grosso do Sul picked up 2-3 inch rains late Friday through Saturday that should pretty much alleviate any talk of drought down there, according to a local source. Temps in southern Brazil should be nearly normal.
A strong system will work through most of the US Corn Belt from the 19th through the 22nd. This system comes in 2 pieces. The first is all rain, and is minor…a few tenths at brings rain and ends as snow, with water equivalents of up to 1 inch and perhaps a few inches of snow on the backside across the western and central corn belt .The cold air that comes in behind will be a pattern than is similar to what we have just worked through, but not quite as extreme. However, it will be cold enough to produce a nice set of clipper systems along a northern storm track through the end of the month.
South African Corn production areas continue to see scattered, timely rains. There look to be no weather related production problems in the next 2 weeks, with rains up to 1 inch, coverage around 80%. Rains will not come all at once, and will be scattered form day to day. Temps at or slightly above normal.
We continue to keep an eye toward harvest in northern and western parts f Matto Grosso. Weather looks good this week for that, with only scattered to limited rains. From today through Friday we should see under a quarter inch of rain, mostly from heat based thunderstorms. Over the weekend we will se a pick up in scattered action, but nothing frontal related. From the 20th through the 27th there will be pattern return to normal and above normal precipitation. This will result in at least 2 fronts sweeping through Brazil soy areas, 1-3 inches of rain and coverage at 80% For later beans (and there are more of them this year due to some dryness in early parts of the soy planting window) that will be in the middle of flowering or just done with flowering and moving into pod set and fill…this will be ideal moisture placement. Temps look to be normal to slightly above over the east and northeast, normal to slightly below over the west. The moisture that comes after the 20th should also be great for any second crop corn that goes in the ground right after bean harvest. To us, this looks like a superb forecast in the extended period for Brazil beans, and when you put this together with true lack of stress stories from last weeks supposed hot and dry period (others words, not ours) you have to look at the bean production potential as being right where early season projections had it.
Temps move back and forth for a couple of days, but most of HRW areas will see a move to normal or above normal temperatures in the next 7-10 days. That pattern will not remain. A strong front will move through around the 20th and behind it we should see another arctic air outbreak to finish the month. Snow cover will go away fairly quickly and will be minimal to none by the end of the weekend. However the next arctic outbreak will not be as bad as the most recent outbreak, therefore, we do not expect as much winter talk. Precipitation from the 19th to the 22nd will be in the half to 1.5” range, but will be skewed east. Western HRW areas may only receive a tenth or two with 40% coverage, while the rest of the belt will sees the higher range.
SRW areas pick up moisture from the system around the 20th and will likely net about an inch of water. Snow pack reduces considerably from late this week through next as well, aided by the rain. A return to cold air for the extended period is well advertised, and is not thought to have much of an impact at this time.
Moderating temps will be nice for beef cattle production areas, but the level of temp moderation will also lead to fairly rapid ground melt…which will lead to some mud issues. Feedlots in the western high plains will miss out on the bigger precipitation amounts…so that will not compound the mud problems, but it is something that others may have to contend with for 7-10 days until colder air comes in behind. Dairy areas along and north of I-80 will not warm as significantly, but will still be above normal from this weekend through most of next week term.