Arctic air will remain for a couple more days, but we will see general moderation of temperatures going into the weekend. We like the temperature moderation to start late Wednesday and Thursday over the central and southern part of the state, but hold off until Friday up north. Once temperatures break the freezing mark, we will be off on a period of nearly 7 days with temps normal or above normal. The warmest day will likely end up being Saturday, with temps in ranging form the upper 30s to near 40 north and in to the lower 50s in the south. Snowmelt should happen quickly as the period wears on. However, models usually underestimate the cooling potential of snowpack on the ground…so we think that at least initially, the temps will fall a few degrees short of projected high temps by the models. The initial warming period should be dry, as we expect no new precipitation through the weekend.
We will see a weak front shooting through the region early next week for the 19th. The front will have minimal moisture, likely only a tenth or two, and will feature coverage of only 40%. Temps do not drop off dramatically following that little pulse. However, stronger front with a more organized low will move through for the 21st-22nd. That part of the system will bring up to half-three quarters of an inch of liquid equivalent.
We like that precipitation starting as rain, but as much colder arctic air races in behind…we think we can see a changeover to snow, and a couple of inches are possible before being done. This is well out on the forecast window right now…so there is plenty of time to change. Don’t set it in stone yet. With this kind of event, the timing of the cold air will be the most key.
Following that system, the colder pattern will shift us back into a scenario where we see clipper systems coming in from the NW. this will likely bring several waves of accumulating snows, the first of which should move in around the 26th into the 27th. While temperatures will be back below normal, we will reiterate what we mentioned yesterday…that the cold will not be as strong as what we just are getting done dealing with…at least initially. February is looking very interesting and potentially very, very active.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
We feel like a broken record here, but in general, we see no trouble spots in South American corn production areas. A little bit of net drying settles in through the weekend and early next week in southern Cordoba and LaPampa in Argentina, but the rest of Argentina’s Corn Belt gets rain from late Sunday through Tuesday. A stronger system later in the period (end of next week into the following week) brings rains to southern parts of the belt. So, we will hold onto at least 2-4 inches in the central north and 1-2 inches in the southern growing region over the next two weeks combined. Temps will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s through the weekend, but should pull back, to the mid 80s and low 90s next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s and 70s. .
Southern Brazil corn areas will see 2 nice fronts between now and the 21st. These fronts should yield 2-5 inch rain totals.
The entire US Corn Belt gets closer to normal on temps next week. Rains to start the week hit mostly the southern half of the Corn Belt, from I-70 southward. WE like half inch or less rains, coverage at 70%. The biggest question will be “all rain” vs. “rain ending as snow.” We like mostly rain, with snow, if it happens anywhere, limited to areas along and just north of I-70. Any warming in the Corn Belt will be short lived, as we see significant arctic air coming in after the 21st.
South African Corn production areas continue to see scattered, timely rains. There look to be no weather related production problems in the next 2 weeks, with rains up to 1 inch, coverage around 80%. Rains will not come all at once, and will be scattered form day to day. Temps at or slightly above normal.
Harvest is ramping up somewhat in western and northern Brazil bean areas. To that end, weather looks decent for harvest through the enxt 10 days. Moisture will be around, but will be scattered. WE like 10 day totals of half an inch or less, but are bumping coverage to 60%. This meains we should see mostly suitable moisture for any 2nd crop corn planting that is going ont. Heat continues to be relegated mostly to coastal and not agriculture areas. The 12-16 day forecast window is still wetter than the short term, but we are scaling our forecast back to hafl to 1.5”, taking out some of the heavier hit areas. .
The main change in our outlook for HRW areas has to do with the variability in temps. We see a lot more up and down of temps from day to day over the next week to 10 days. Warmer air ridging in the west will battle with the cold air trough that wants to park over the east. The western HRW areas will be in the crosshairs. The worst consequence of this will be two-fold. 1) We expect to see most snow cover go away over the next week or so. 2) The up and down will provide mixed messages for wheat as well. Now, most of HRW has adequate moisture and is in decent health, but our concern over bitter cold arctic air sometime after the 21st/22nd should be noted. We wont jump on the winter kill bandwagon like it seems everyone else does (after all, how many times can you really kill wheat, anyway?), but you can rest assured that we will see that headline making the rounds again in a couple of weeks.
No change in SRW areas. We have decent moisture in the weeks ahead from at least 2 systems, slightly moderating temperatures, but the bulk of the snow north of I-70 should stick around. That means we still should have at least some blanket of protection as the next arctic blast arrives later in the month.
Cold air holds over northern areas, and in large dairy areas like WI, MN, IA, IL and IN, we will see generally temps at or below normal. In large beef production areas out west, we will see some susceptibility to wilder temp changes, which may impact rate of gain and overall production. However, we do not see much in the next two weeks that would give concern over transportation issues. Short term, there still will be high levels of animal stress due to bitter wind chills today, and well below normal temps tomorrow.