Cold air held once again yesterday over a large part of the state, but we will start to see moderate over the region going forward today. South winds will be the key. With the south winds, we need to expect some fog potential into the weekend, as warmer air comes over the snowpack and the cold ground. Temps will work up to levels 5-10 degrees above normal from this weekend through most of next week, although we expect the warmest air in for Saturday. Temps will be in the 30s to low 50s over the weekend state wide (coolest north, warmest south, of course), and then from low 30s through 40s next week.
Our next system to move through is a two piece event for Sunday through Thursday of next week. Models are trending toward more action from the first wave of the system this Sunday, now printing up to a third of an inch or moisture across the state. We like this precipitation to be all rain, as it hits mostly during daylight hours Sunday. Coverage will be about 80% across the state. The second piece comes out for Wednesday into Thursday, but that looks more like just an air mass change with limited precipitation. Right now, the GFS model is still holding on to a stronger low passing south in that time frame, but even if that does turn out to be the case, a southern track would limit moisture up here. What we do need to take away from this will be a dramatic change in temps, taking highs back down to below normal levels.
The extended pattern shows cold weather holding, and we continue to see clipper systems work in. The first one sweeps through around the 24th. Minor snows likely over the northern third of the state. WE should follow that up with at least 1, perhaps two more clipper systems through the end of the month.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Very few changes on the weather front in Argentina. Dry weather works in now through the weekend, and we will gear up for the next front to sweep through late Sunday night through early Tuesday. Moisture totals are on track in that system to hit 1-2”, which is slightly better than previous projections. Coverage comes in at about 80%. Models also show half to 1 inch rains around the 25th, and thunderstorms toward the end of the month. Temps remain in that normal to slightly above range.
Southern Brazil corn areas remain very active through the last half of the month. Our rain projections remain at 1-3 inches combined (at the low end) through the 30th with 3 fronts now working through. Temps normal to a bit above normal.
The US Corn Belt sees mild air through mid to late next week, followed by an active return to below normal temps. Moisture from the front that brings the cold air will be heaviest just outside the Corn Belt to the south. Clipper systems should slowly build some snowpack in back over the region toward the end of the month.
Moderate to heavy rains remain on track for South African Corn areas for the 20th-22nd. !-2 inch totals with locally higher amounts. The rest of the period will see nothing more than scattered showers.
A little concern here as models keep trying to knock moisture back. Its like saying “its going to rain next week” week, after week, after week. Now, we are not to that point yet…but we continue to see the short term pattern dominated by scattered moisture, and the extended period more active. At some poitn that will verify. But for now, we willhave to push the heaviest rains back a bit. From now through the 23rd, we see scattered showers and thunderstorms. We will keep cumulative rain totals of half to 1.5”, coverage still in the 50-60% range. From late next week through the end of the month, models show a very active pattern still. We just would be a bit more comfortable talking about moisture if we could get it with more coverage into the 7 day window. So, we will keep watchign fo rthat. Right now, the extended period looks to deliver 1-3 inches, coverage 80%. No serious heat in the forecast.
All plains wheat areas will see mild air to finish the week and through the first half of next week. Temps will be as much as 5-15 degrees above normal in spots. This warmer push also comes mostly dry. The only decent moisture potential will be around the 21st and 22nd with some rain in central and southern OK, and some snow farther north in KS. Liquid equivalents will be up to half an inch. The southern plains will pick up another half to three quarters of an inch around the 26th-27th, but that will not get much farther north than the red river. The rest of the HRW areas will be dry, and will turn cold after next Thursday.
SRW areas warm up this weekend, and stay warm for about 6-7 days. Precipitation will be limited north of the OH river to liquid equivalents the next 10 days under a quarter of an inch. Soft wheat in south of the OH River should benefit from a heavy rain event around the 27th, and some around the 22nd.
FSU wheat areas see some temps up and down over the next 10 days, but the extended period shows two deep troughs moving through. These will bring much colder air in…but it will not be a long term super cold snap. We look for temps to be close to normal on the upper end, with the colder than normal incursions. The troughs will bring two good chances of snow to the region, one around the 26th, and one around the 30th.