We are going to have to push the arrival of the cold air back just a bit, as new models continue to show the resiliency of the mild air that has invaded the Hoosier state. As it stands right now, we will see temps pull back a bit tomorrow over today, but then we are back to that 5-10 degrees above normal range in temps right on through the end of the week and into the weekend. We look for highs in from the mid 30s to low 50s north to south (generally) and lows in the upper teens to low 30s. This should facilitate decent sunshine as evaporation rates will be high enough to dispense of the remaining surface moisture very quickly.
We will see a very weak disturbance move over the region later this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow. Moisture availability is very low…with no more than a few hundredths to at most a tenth. The European model says that moisture triggers up to an inch of snow in the northern third of the state, but we think that if snow does fly (which is most likely during overnight hours tonight into tomorrow) it will be the same kind of wet, big flaked, melt very quickly kind of snow we saw in the same areas this past Sunday. The farther south you go, the more potential for all liquid, and the more potential to see nearly no new precipitation.
Our Sunday system looks a little less dramatic this morning vs. 24 hours ago…but the key is that it is still there, and the timing is very similar. We will hold with .1”-.4” moisture potential, which is down slightly from yestr4day, but still well above where models are at. We want to see how this front evolves through the next couple of days. That front should bring colder air in for next week. We follow up with another weak front for the 28th-29th, but it looks stronger just south of the OH River. The GFS model still holds on to the system for the 2nd-3rd…but it is not as massive. However…it is brining all precipitation in very cold air now…meaning snow threat is still there, and it has shifted east into IL and eastern IA. So, we continue to monitor that.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
No major change in moisture amounts over the next two weeks, but we are shifting this first system back just a bit, now arriving for Friday into Saturday. This system may miss extreme southern parts of Cordoba and western BA. We are moving next week’s system forward about 36 hours, from late on the 27th through the 29th. Rain amounts still look good, but we will dial them back a bit from yesterday, looking at half to 2 inches. Coverage will be 80%. Dry for the turn of the month, but a strong front hits for the 3rd.
Southern Brazil corn areas see half to 1.5” rains today and tomorrow, scattered showers and storms this weekend, and then 1-3 inch rains from a front for the 29th-30th. Models also show 1-3 inch rains with yet another front around the 4th…although we think that front will likely not be as strong as is shown right now (model bias in the far extended period). Still, this pattern should give good moisture on a timely basis for southern Brazil corn.
No change in our thoughts for the US Corn Belt: only minor precipitation in through the next week to 10 days. This next system for the weekend into early next week will produce up to half an inch, but we would skew our thoughts toward lower amounts in most cases. Next week should feature the return of colder air…but we will not see any significant moisture until we get closer to the end of the month. Temps the next week will be above normal for 75% of the Corn Belt.
Models have diminished greatly the off shore strong storm west of South Africa in the extended period. That is not to say they wont bring it back, but without some kind of outside influence, we do not look for anything more than typical scattered moisture over the next couple of weeks…nothing over the top, but yet no real threat of dryness either.
For brazil bean areas, there really is no change this morning. We stil lhave plenty of scatterd mostuer around, but it is not anyting that all locations can count on. To this point, we have had enough to stave off major problems. The driest and warmest areas continue to be in eastern Goais, western Minas Gerais, and extreme southwestern Bahia. These areas will remain in that dry pattern through the next 10 days. The rest of the bean belt will pick up half to 1.5” rains combined. Temps slightly above normal. Now, in the extended forecast, there are two very strong fronts that move in that can bring 1-3 inch rains…but the second front has better coverage at this time. However, the second front is also the one we believe will not hold as advertised. We look for that front to be much less impressive as we go forward. Coverage of rains in the next 10 days stays at 65%, and in the 11-16 day period we will bump it to 80%.
HRW areas will continue to see well above normal temps, with limited precipitation over KS and NE. We will see some showers from wed through Friday from SE CO down across OK and TX. Then we see some more action in eastern NE and northeast KS for the 25th-26th. Then up to 1 inch rains in TX and OK again for the 30th and 31st. Temps really do not start to cool off much until we get into early next week, when we revert back to nearly normal temps.
SRW areas stay drier than normal too. Moisture moves over areas south of the OH River to start next week, but we will have to wait for a system closer to the first of February before we see good moisture cross all SRW areas. Temps stay normal to above normal through this weekend, near normal next week and then below normal for the end of the month.
FSU wheat areas look similar to our HRW areas here in the US: mostly above normal temps through the next couple of weeks, but getting very active going into February. The difference will be that while we are well above normal here, they will only be near normal in the FSU. What that does mean, though, is that there is no concern right now about bitter cold in the short term. We see very little new precipitation in the next week to 10 days, but several strong fronts in the extended period. The first front for the 31st and 1st will mostly be rain, but the system for the 4th could bring a good deal of snow.