Minor snows are around in northern Indiana as we wake up this morning, but precipitation totals are unimpressive for the most part. We continue to look for above normal temps into this weekend. While we might take temps down just a bit today in the wake of the front that just moved through, we should be back in the range of where we were earlier this week as we go from tomorrow through Saturday.
A cold front for Sunday brings another chance for precipitation. The cold air coming behind is colder on the most recent runs, which may allow for better snow to develop. However, we still will not be as cold as where we started the month. We .1”-.4” moisture potential with most some of that trying to come as snow. Now, how much of that can be snow is still up in the air and depends on timing. If we can get the system to wait until later in the day Sunday to initiate, we would have a better chance of more snow. As it stands right now, I like mostly rain finishing as snow. Behind this system, temps get to normal and even a bit below normal as we move through the rest of the week next week.
In the extended period we have much more active weather forming. A quick moving clipper like front moves through around the 30th. We have a stronger system with mostly snow (and the potential for heavier snow) for the 2nd and 3rd, and then a potential monster for the 5th as well .Bitter cold air will be pooling at the turn of the month in Canada, and will look to dive southward behind a stronger system early in the month. This will be the start of a very active and interesting February.
So far, the month of January is still below normal on temperatures, even with the mild air of the past few days. With the colder push next week, we anticipate the month being a bit below normal when the monthly data is released, with precipitation below normal as well. February will likely make up for that.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Good rain is still on the way for Argentina corn areas. Our next system arrives for Friday into Saturday and should have half to 1.5” rains. We still think that this system may miss extreme southern parts of Cordoba and western BA along with LaPampa…but the southern extent is better today than yesterday. We have another front for the 27th through the 29th bringing half to 2” rain totals and coverage at 80%. A dry 4-5 day stretch takes us into February, and then a strong front for the 3rd-4th brings half to 2 inch rains with coverage at 70%. No problems in Argentina in the forecast period.
Showers and storms in Southern Brazil corn areas taper off today, but the atmospheric moisture does not really diminish entirely. This should be enough to trigger scattered action off and on through the weekend. Next wee we should have another 1-3 inch rainmaker move through for the 29th-30th, coverage at 80%. Rains early in February will keep action top of mind with another 1-2 inches possible.
The US Corn Belt will be lulled to sleep the rest of the week with mild air in play. Do not be deceived…colder air is pooling up north, and we should see a dramatic uptick in precipitation over the region as we go into February. The system just ahead of the turn of the month is still the best chance nearby, but the extended period has two big fronts to hammer the Corn Belt early in February.
The pattern stays with the status quo…scattered showers and storms through the end of the month will bring half to 1.25” rains. Stronger fronts are on the way for early february. Harvest should be able to proceed nicely in the next few weeks, although if the heavier rains materialize in early february, there may be some complaints aobut getting beans out and corn in.
Divide the HRW belt into north and south. South areas a (TX and southern OK) get great rains in the weeks ahead, with 1-3 inches combined out of 2, maybe three systems. They want to form in TX and move east in to the lower Delta. Farther north…action will be limited. Temps will be mild though most of next week, but colder air will start to stair step in toward the end of the month.
SRW areas also have to be looked at north vs. south. Up north, action will be limited to a few tenths through the rest of the month. Most of it will be rain, or wet snow. South of the OH River, we can see up to 1 inch of rain. Temps get colder next week and will be bitterly cold for February.
FSU wheat areas still have their best shot of moisture coming right at the turn of the month into early February. Colder air starts to move into the region next week.