Snows worked out as anticipated yesterday with a coating to 2 inches over most of the northern third of the state, a few higher amounts here and there. The rest of the week looks pretty slow weather wise, as cold air comes in, but we really don’t take it over the top until next week. .
Temperatures will be below freezing over the northern half of the state, and no better than the mid 30s farther south for most of this week as Canadian high pressure drifts across the region through Wednesday. This should produce some sunshine, even though the colder air will be in control. Those temperature levels still are near normal for this time of year, though, so even though it feels colder, we really are going to be right where we should be.
A weak wave moves through Thursday and will bring some clouds. Precipitation does not look all that impressive, but we can squeeze out a coating to an inch of snow with a few hundredths of an inch of new moisture coming along the front. This will be another clipper like system, meaning it will move through pretty quickly, and should be a 1 day affair or less.
High pressure comes in behind that wave, and then we play yo-yo with our precipitation outlook for several days. A strong low in the southern plains will try and eject out over the weekend, but will likely fail, as the first wave of energy dies over the lower delta. However, the second attempt with better organization looks like it may be more successful for early next week. At this point, though, models are in full disagreement. The GFS model, which handled the last system very nicely, is now all over the place and mostly dry, while the European is adamant about moisture but unsure on track. This muddies the water substantially, and we will need to watch for a trend to emerge over the next couple of days. Right now we like the European solution because of how and where it is handling the cold air this week…but time will tell. In any case, we still look for February to be colder than normal and more active than the past 10 days have been.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
A nice front moves through Argentina corn areas from midweek this week through Saturday. This front should put down up to an inch of rain with locally higher amounts and coverage at 80% of Argentine corn areas. Temps this week will be warmer than normal to start, but as the rains come, we revert back to nearly normal. The extended period shows scattered showers around through the first half of next week with coverage at 50%, amounts up to half an inch, and then dry to finish the week. Another front for the 9th-10th can bring up to half an inch. Temps nearly normal for next week.
That front for this week works right through south and southeast Brazil corn areas this weekend and early next week. The rain totals will be from half to 1.5”, coverage 80%. Another front hits for Wednesday/Thursday of next week, but may miss RGDS, instead coming in more from the west, across MGDS and then into Parana. Rains there can be from half to 2”, coverage 70%. Then mostly dry from late next week through the 10th.
US Corn Belt areas continue to wait for a significant weather event. Models are in grand disagreement over the extended period, and nearby, cold air is more of a topic of discussion than serious precipitation. This week’s temps look to be near to slightly below normal, and the eastern Corn Belt will be well below normal next week. Western corn belt areas should be below normal too, but models are unable to get a grasp on where warm air will build too later next week…one model says it gets warmer all the way up to northern MN for the 5th, for example, and another says there is no way it happens. Model disagreement is often a sign of pattern change…so we like a colder solution, as it would be a change in pattern from the past week to 10 days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are set to hit south African corn production areas through early Thursday, then the rest of the period will see limited to minor rains, as the big systems stay just off shore and scoot around the cape to the south.
Nearby rains look similar to what we have seen thae past few weeks over Brazil’s soy belt – scattered, but timely, and for the most part just enough to avoid major complaints. Some will look at the lates model runs and try and talk up dryness…but honestly, this is a pattern that looks very similar to the status quo…so we will not buck and change our forecast. The extended period looks much wetter…with some combined 2-4 inch rain totals. But, to this point, we have not seen any of the moisture in any extended runs make it into the 7 day period with similar intensity…so at this point it is nice thought, but we will be in the “we will believe it when we see it” camp. Still…there really is not much that can be looked on as troubleseome in a majority of Brazil soy areas. The few areas in the east that have trended dry will stay that way… but as harvest really peaks in the next couple of weeks, most likely will not be complaining about dryness. Short term, no more than 1” of rain over the next 7 days combined, coverage at 60%.
Temps will be up and down over the next two weeks. While cold air comes in unabated over the eastern third of the country, in HRW areas there will be some back and forth, with a majority of the time showing temps at or above normal. Precipitation still looks mostly limited to the southern plains, in TX and OK, especially this week. We see .25”-1” rains over TX and OK from I-40 southward Friday and Saturday. Temps should be warm enough for mostly rain, although if moisture does push a bit farther north, it is conceivable that there can be some wet snow. After that we see some .25”-2” potential over TX, OK and southern KS for the 5th through the 9th.
SRW areas should be colder over the coming weeks. Moisture will be somewhat limited in northern SRW areas through midweek next week. However, if our system coming out of TX this weekend and early next week trends more toward the European solution, from midweek on we should see better action. Southern SRW areas get minor rains this week, better rains next week.
FSU wheat areas go slightly below normal for temperatures through a large part of this week. However, models show a strong Siberian high expanding and moving south over Tibet, which will produce some strong southerly flow up the backside for next week. This can actually push temps back to normal and above normal levels next week. That kind of flow should produce some precipitation, although at this time it looks mostly minor. The warming flow subsides toward the end of the forecast period with temps retur4ning to normal, and a precipitation outlook that includes quarter to half inch liquid equivalents from the 7th-10th.