No one said it would be easy…but computer models are making this weekend’s forecast even tougher. Models began to backpedal a bit on the rain and snow heading up into the state late this weekend. More on that in a bit. But first, we have a little bit of action to take care of this morning.
Warmer air is moving into the region, coming in with a warm front that has slowly moved over the plains over the past couple of days. This front will not really completely pass through, but rather get close enough to bump temps a bit, and provide a bit of overrunning moisture for us. Over running moisture is moisture that comes in as warm air from a warm front overrides colder air at the surface. This kind of moisture is usually light, persistent, and in the winter, it is a recipe for freezing precipitation. We are seeing that just a bit over northeast and east central Indiana this morning, and may see that expand elsewhere as well, although most of the state should just see minor liquid precipitation, and the far northern part of the state can see wet snow flurries. Total moisture liquid equivalent will be a few hundredths to at most a tenth. By midday is should be working away, although the day will have a damp feel.
Milder air will be in for today with temps at or above normal. Some models are keeping the cold out until later tomorrow, but we think that is too much of a finesse move. Look for colder temps already tomorrow, and if we happen to be wrong on timing and we squeeze out one more above normal day…well, BONUS!!! Temps get back to normal and below normal levels to start the weekend, and then turn much colder behind our next front that hits Sunday.
Let’s talk about that front just a bit. We still see a nice low coming out of TX/OK and moving northeast. The latest track of the low before the models decided to chicken out took the low to just south of Evansville and over to south of Cincinnati. We actually like that track. It is believable, and should work, riding the leading edge of the cold air coming in. That track would keep our .2”-.5” moisture totals intact, and keep a good chance of snow in over the northern half to third of the state, rain and/a rain snow mix in over the southern half. Models yesterday took a lot of moisture out, and tracked the system farther south. We look for a reversal in that thinking today, but if not, we will have to adjust the forecast to be less ominous over the state. Time will tell…but these kind of model flip flops are typical, especially when you have a system tracking in to an area that just got waylaid (the mid Atlantic and northeast) a few days prior. Models sometimes just get confused by the physics involved. But I digress.
In any case, whether we get good rains and snows or not, much colder arctic air blasts in behind the front. A strong arctic high parks over the state late Monday into Tuesday, and highs in the teens, well below normal. Whether or not we probe below zero is still up in the air, but I doubt we do this time around…based on the current status of the air mass. A clipper front sweeps through quickly at midweek and can put down some snows, with moisture totals of .1”-.3”, we can see some snow accumulations. However, models have backed that wave up just a bit, putting it in late Thursday instead of Wednesday. We think if the weekend system hits as we have been talking (bigger, better) this will take the midweek system back to a Wednesday arrival rather than Thursday. Either way, another quick mover with snow potential comes through Saturday.
The extended period may be less exciting initially, but strong moisture coming into the western third of the country in days 11-16 will likely set us up for several more strong waves and plenty of cold air for mid month.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Good rains yesterday over northern parts of Argentina’s Corn Belt. These are areas that have had good rains to this point. Drier areas have been off to the south and west, and were missed by yesterday’s rains. From here we will see more showers today and tomorrow over key corn areas, and we likely will fill in some of those areas that were missed initially here. WE like rain totals still in a half to .75” range over the next two days. Scattered showers remain on the docket for early next week, and then a nice front as we go into the week after next.
South and southeast Brazil corn areas get half to 1.5” rains from late this week through midweek next week. Extended period rains shift more into Parana and points north, leaving Rio Grande do Sul with net drying, although that should not be too problematic.
Some flip flopping on models for the US Corn Belt. Eastern locations will see light action this morning and today, but it will be under a tenth of an inch for the most part with the best moisture in OH. This weekend’s event still has potential to produce up to half an inch of moisture, rain and snow, but models really have backed off on it in the past 24 hours. We want to see if they flip back onto this system today and tomorrow (as they should). Much colder air is in next week, with temps below normal. Clippers will bring good snows to the upper Midwest and the eastern corn belt next week and in to the week following.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain the rule in Brazil soy country. Heavier and more frequent showers will contiue to pop up along the western and southern rim of the bean belt through the weekend, and then enxt week we see a gradual filling in of mositure over central and northern parts of the belt. All told, we should see half to 1 inch rains over 50% of the soy belt through next Monday. The rest of the period we see better frontal development, with the best rains still advertized in the extended period.
Argentina soy areas have good moistuer coverage. Check the radar picture above to see where the rains have fallen in the past 24 hours. These rains will expand over other soy areas through the weekend. Next week shows scattered sfhowers, and then a strong front for the week after next.
The key to temps in the HRW belt will be the track and movement of the low coming out of TX this weekend. Models backed off its intensity and the cold air it draws in yesterday, but international models kept the feature alive. WE continue to lean toward a solution that takes Canadian air all the way down in to TX over the course of the next week. This will take temps to normal and below normal levels. Precipitation will be limited north of the KS/OK line, unless this system really shoots more northeast than current projections. We like totals of half to 1 inch from the KS line southward, a tenth or two up to half an inch from KS northward. Next week looks mostly dry, but plenty of pacific moisture moves into the western third of the country late next week and the week following, so we believe we will see an active mid month pattern in wheat areas for precipitation.
Less moisture again on models for this weekend, but as we have outlined in other sections, we think the handling of this system is flawed right now. For the time being, we will hold with rain totals this weekend and early next week at up to 1 inch south of the OH River. Next week another system crosses the Deep South, so some of the far southern SRW acres will see an additional inch of moisture. Colder air plays big in SRW acres in the eastern Corn Belt, with temps mild the next 2 days, but turning much colder over the weekend and next week with decent snow potential.
FSU wheat/grain areas stay under strong high pressure the rest of the week and weekend. A couple of weak fronts try and move out of Eastern Europe next week but will have limited moisture scope. Colder air comes in later in the extended period, but for right now, we do not see anything that screams problem. In fact, temps over the period will average around normal, and perhaps skew slightly above. .
Record warmth is moving farther and farther from our minds today, as temps move down again. Models yesterday tried to paint a less cold picture, but we still look for temps over the weekend to be 40 and 50 degrees different than Monday and Tuesday. . We will watch for precipitation that may end as snow in parts of SW Kansas back through the TX High plains. However, the bulk of the precipitation this weekend will be rain in the southern plains. Dairy production areas in the upper Midwest need to gird up for some significant cold air that will return next week. However, precipitation is not overly impressive in these coldest areas, at least not yet.